Ethereum above ___ on May 28?
Crypto|$12.0k Vol|
time4 days 8 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on May 28? - AI Found +12.1¢ Mispricing

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Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+12.1¢
2,100(No)
+7.8¢
2,000(No)
+5.3¢
2,200(No)

Ethereum above ___ on May 28? AI analysis: • +12.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Highest temperature in Beijing on May 24?
Weather|$47.6k Vol|
time4 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Beijing on May 24?

Top Undervalued
+40¢
29°C(No)
+12.1¢
31°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Beijing Capital International ...
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Movers
From May 22 to May 23, 2026, the price of the '27°C or below' option plummeted from 24c to around 6c, and the '28°C' price fell from 27c to about 15c. Meanwhile, the '29°C' option rose from 19.5c to 30.5c, and the '31°C' option surged from 9.5c to 23c before retracing. The reason is that as the target date approaches, meteorological forecast models gradually ruled out the possibility of lower temperatures, narrowing the forecast range precisely to around 29°C-30°C, causing funds to quickly reallocate among adjacent options.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms, especially how the Wunderground temperature data for Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) is rounded to whole degrees Celsius and when it is finalized.
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 24?
Weather|$32.8k Vol|
time4 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 24?

Top Undervalued
+43¢
28°C(No)
+24.5¢
27°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather, QWeather), Wuhan (Tianhe International Air...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a common engagement-driven topic in prediction markets. While it's not a major macro event the general public naturally ponders, it is a relatively standard liquidity-filler question within the prediction market ecosystem, keeping it from being extremely bizarre.
Movers
2026-05-22 to 2026-05-23, the price of the '31°C or higher' option plummeted from 40.5c to 3.95c, as updated weather forecasts closer to the date confirmed precipitation and ruled out extreme high temperatures. 2026-05-22 to 2026-05-23, the prices of the '27°C' and '28°C' options surged from 6c and 21.5c to 23c and 39.5c respectively, because the latest meteorological data narrowed the expected high temperature for May 24 down to the 27°C-28°C range.
AI Analysis
Based on historical data from the Wunderground Wuhan Tianhe International Airport station, what is the actual occurrence frequency of the highest temperature hitting ranges like 27°C or 31°C+ around May 24 in previous years?
Highest temperature in Denver on May 24?
Weather|$26.2k Vol|
time4 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Denver on May 24?

Top Undervalued
+0.8¢
62°F or higher(No)
+0.3¢
60-61°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The historical average high temperature for Denver (Aurora) in late May is well above 70°F. As the r...
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Rule Risk
The title mentions 'Denver', but the resolution specifically uses data from the Buckley Space Force Base (KBKF) in Aurora. Traders checking forecasts for downtown Denver or Denver International Airport (KDEN) might be misled, representing a classic geographic trap.
AI Analysis
How exactly is the highest temperature data for Buckley Space Force Base (KBKF) finalized on Wunderground, and what are the resolution rules if the data source is temporarily unavailable or disputed on May 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 24?
Weather|$52.3k Vol|
time4 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 24?

Top Undervalued
+57.4¢
32°C(No)
+8¢
33°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 24, 2026, is e...
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Exotics
While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a single day remains a relatively niche and fine-grained topic for general prediction market participants. The general public does not usually try to guess such specific figures in their daily lives.
Movers
Between 05:13 and 08:53 on May 22, 2026, the price of the 30°C option plummeted from 34.5c to 15.5c, as updated forecasts closer to the date indicated higher temperatures, ruling out lower temperature possibilities. Between 16:08 and 19:33 on May 22, 2026, the price of the 31°C option surged from 26c to 40.5c, driven by adjusted weather forecasts that increased the likelihood of hitting 31°C or 32°C.
AI Analysis
How quickly does Wunderground finalize and update the historical daily high temperature for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ)?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 24?
Weather|$26.0k Vol|
time4 hrs 38 mins

Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 24?

Top Undervalued
+51.5¢
30°C(No)
+14.9¢
29°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on current prediction market implied probabilities and the proximity of the target date, the h...
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Movers
May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026: The prices for the 34°C and 35°C options experienced sharp declines. The 34°C option plummeted from 13.5c to 1.3c, and the 35°C option crashed from 13c to 0.8c. The reason is that as May 24 approaches, weather forecasting models have become more precise, eliminating the possibility of anomalous extreme heat, causing the market to price these extreme high-temperature options near zero. Over the last 3 days, option prices excluding extreme highs have remained relatively stable, reflecting no significant changes in the short-term weather forecast.
AI Analysis
Can you explain in simple terms how the highest temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on May 24 will be finalized using Wunderground, and what happens if the data is revised later?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2,100
YesNo
60.5¢
39.5¢
48.4¢
51.6¢
0¢
+12.1¢
2,000
YesNo
89¢
11¢
81.2¢
18.8¢
0¢
+7.8¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0020, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0500, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0480, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Negative Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, -0.0060, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, -0.0480, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20)

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