Predicting the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is relatively novel for the general public. While weather derivatives exist in professional trading, it remains somewhat of a niche and novelty event in retail prediction markets.

May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026: The price of the 70-71°F option surged from 16c to 37c. The reason is that as May 24 approaches, weather forecast data became more definite, indicating the high temperature will fall into this range. May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026: The price of the 74°F or higher option dropped from 19c to 8.5c because the probability of extreme heat decreased as the date drew nearer.

May 19, 2026 - May 21, 2026: Multiple options experienced steep price crashes, such as 'GOAT' plunging from 37.5c to 3.5c, and 'Apex' and 'Black Phone 2' collapsing from ~26c to ~4c. The reason is that the market was initially severely mispriced and overvalued (sum of Yes was >300%). As early viewership data became clearer, liquidity dumped the options with no realistic chance for the #2 spot. Meanwhile, 'Swapped' rebounded from an intra-period low of 13c to surge to 47c, consolidating its position as the frontrunner.

Between May 22 and May 23, 2026, the price for 84-85°F dropped from 21.5c to 14.5c, while the price for 80-81°F increased from 22.5c to 29.5c. This occurred because, as the date approached, weather forecast models converged further, slightly adjusting the expected high temperature to a lower range.