May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026: The price of the 70-71°F option surged from 16c to 37c. The reason is that as May 24 approaches, weather forecast data became more definite, indicating the high temperature will fall into this range. May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026: The price of the 74°F or higher option dropped from 19c to 8.5c because the probability of extreme heat decreased as the date drew nearer.

From 2026-05-21 15:03:15 to 2026-05-22 19:18:14, the price of the <16m option fell from 27c to 11.9c, the 16-17m option fluctuated from 27c to 23c, the 17-18m option rose from 24.5c to 38.5c before falling back to 29.5c, the 18-19m option dropped from 25.5c to 10c before recovering to 23.5c, and the >19m option surged from 25c to 55c before settling at 50c. This widespread and severe volatility reflects the market adjusting positions based on incomplete data or box office previews ahead of the weekend results, lacking a clear consensus expectation.

May 19, 2026 - May 21, 2026: Multiple options experienced steep price crashes, such as 'GOAT' plunging from 37.5c to 3.5c, and 'Apex' and 'Black Phone 2' collapsing from ~26c to ~4c. The reason is that the market was initially severely mispriced and overvalued (sum of Yes was >300%). As early viewership data became clearer, liquidity dumped the options with no realistic chance for the #2 spot. Meanwhile, 'Swapped' rebounded from an intra-period low of 13c to surge to 47c, consolidating its position as the frontrunner.

On May 22, 2026, the market experienced drastic corrections due to the release of updated 4-day weekend box office projections (generally in the $9M-$11M range). The price of the <8m option plummeted from 34c to 7c; the 8-9.5m option crashed from 35.5c to 14c before recovering; and the 11-12.5m option surged from 14.5c to 26c. These fluctuations reflect the market upgrading its box office expectations on opening day.