What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy Tour?
Politics|$21.6k Vol|
time0 s

What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy Tour? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.23 23:54
Top Undervalued
+32¢
Greed / Greedy(No)
+25¢
Immigrant / Immigration(Yes)
+22.5¢
Tariff(Yes)

What will Bernie Sanders say during Fighting Oligarchy Tour? AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Bernie Sanders' stump speeches, especially on a 'Fighting Oligarchy' tour, are highly predictable. H...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Culture|$51.7k Vol|
time36 days 23 hrs

Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+19¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite the recent Andes hantavirus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship and its limited human-to-h...
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Rule Risk
The title simply mentions an 'outbreak', but the rules strictly require an official WHO declaration of a 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)'. A severe localized outbreak without this specific designation will still resolve to 'No'.
Exotics
Hantavirus typically does not transmit human-to-human, making a global public health emergency highly unlikely. Without breaking news, this is a very niche and unusual topic that average people would rarely think about.
Hedging
Crude Oil
S&P 500
Gold
An unexpected WHO PHEIC declaration for Hantavirus would trigger global pandemic fears akin to the early days of COVID-19. Global equities (S&P 500) and energy demand (Crude Oil) would face severe sell-offs due to fears of potential lockdowns and economic stagnation, while capital would rapidly flow into safe-haven assets like Gold.
AI Analysis
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?
Trump|$835.4k Vol|
time36 days 23 hrs

Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?

Top Undervalued
+1.6¢
Todd Blanche(Yes)
+1.4¢
Ted Cruz(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The total implied probability across all listed options is roughly 89%, indicating slight underprici...
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AI Analysis
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
Crypto|$125.5k Vol|
time222 days 4 hrs

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
8¢
Arbitrage
13.97%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 92 cents. Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 92 cents. Given the extremely high probability that all five of these ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Over the past week, the price of 'Yes' has hovered between 7 and 8.5 cents. These top-tier centraliz...
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Hedging
COIN
Bitcoin
If any top CEX (especially Binance or Coinbase) declares insolvency in 2026, it would be a 'Lehman moment' for the crypto market, causing a massive crash in Bitcoin prices (Impact Score 5). As the listed company on the roster, Coinbase's own insolvency would zero its stock, or a competitor's failure could cause extreme volatility for it (Impact Score 5). Spillover effects would likely reach traditional tech indices like the Nasdaq.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Greed / Greedy
YesNo
62¢
38¢
30¢
70¢
+32¢
Immigrant / Immigration
YesNo
10¢
90¢
35¢
65¢
+25¢

Expand to view all 26 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The rules contain highly specific criteria: plurals and possessives count, but other word forms do not; airing old clips counts; only live-broadcast remarks count. This requires meticulous, word-for-word review of the broadcast, posing moderate risks of resolution disputes.
Exotics
Betting on the exact words a politician will use during a single specific tour event is a highly niche and novelty market, far removed from mainstream public interest.
Movers
May 22, 2026 - May 23, 2026, the price of 'Healthcare 4+ times' surged from 66c to 84c. The reason is that healthcare is his perpetual core issue, and as the speech approaches, the market is more confident he will heavily emphasize this policy. May 20, 2026 - May 21, 2026, the price of 'Trump 5+ times' surged from 51.5c to 94c. The reason is the market anticipates that in the current political climate, he will more frequently call out Trump and his policies by name to rally voters. May 20, 2026 - May 21, 2026, the price of 'Fight' surged from 50c to 78c. The reason is that given the tour is named 'Fighting Oligarchy', mentioning this word is almost a certainty. May 20, 2026 - May 21, 2026, the price of 'Iran' surged from 62.5c to 83.5c. The reason is likely heightened geopolitical tensions involving Iran recently, leading markets to bet he will address related foreign policy stances in his speech.

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