Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence?
Politics|$13.7k Vol|
time220 days 23 hrs

Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence? - AI Found +35.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.22 21:44
Top Undervalued
+35.5¢
Aaron Lukas(No)
+16.5¢
John Ratcliffe(No)
+15.4¢
Michael Ellis(No)

Who will Trump announce as next Director of National Intelligence? AI analysis: • +35.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Donald Trump already officially announced former Representative Tulsi Gabbard as his pick for Direct...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?
Culture|$51.7k Vol|
time36 days 23 hrs

Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+19¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite the recent Andes hantavirus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship and its limited human-to-h...
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Rule Risk
The title simply mentions an 'outbreak', but the rules strictly require an official WHO declaration of a 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)'. A severe localized outbreak without this specific designation will still resolve to 'No'.
Exotics
Hantavirus typically does not transmit human-to-human, making a global public health emergency highly unlikely. Without breaking news, this is a very niche and unusual topic that average people would rarely think about.
Hedging
Crude Oil
S&P 500
Gold
An unexpected WHO PHEIC declaration for Hantavirus would trigger global pandemic fears akin to the early days of COVID-19. Global equities (S&P 500) and energy demand (Crude Oil) would face severe sell-offs due to fears of potential lockdowns and economic stagnation, while capital would rapidly flow into safe-haven assets like Gold.
AI Analysis
Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?
Trump|$835.4k Vol|
time36 days 23 hrs

Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General?

Top Undervalued
+1.6¢
Todd Blanche(Yes)
+1.4¢
Ted Cruz(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The total implied probability across all listed options is roughly 89%, indicating slight underprici...
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AI Analysis
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?
Crypto|$125.5k Vol|
time222 days 4 hrs

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
8¢
Arbitrage
13.97%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 92 cents. Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 92 cents. Given the extremely high probability that all five of these ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Over the past week, the price of 'Yes' has hovered between 7 and 8.5 cents. These top-tier centraliz...
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Hedging
COIN
Bitcoin
If any top CEX (especially Binance or Coinbase) declares insolvency in 2026, it would be a 'Lehman moment' for the crypto market, causing a massive crash in Bitcoin prices (Impact Score 5). As the listed company on the roster, Coinbase's own insolvency would zero its stock, or a competitor's failure could cause extreme volatility for it (Impact Score 5). Spillover effects would likely reach traditional tech indices like the Nasdaq.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Aaron Lukas
YesNo
35.5¢
64.5¢
100¢
+35.5¢
John Ratcliffe
YesNo
16.5¢
83.5¢
100¢
+16.5¢

Expand to view all 19 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The primary risk is the lack of an 'Other' option. If Trump nominates someone not explicitly listed, the market lacks a valid resolution path and will likely be canceled. Furthermore, the strict requirement for explicit 'nominee' wording versus 'acting' roles could cause settlement disputes if the initial announcement is vague.
Divergence
There is a massive divergence from reality. Donald Trump already announced Tulsi Gabbard as his DNI in late 2024. Yet, the YES prices for several candidates on this market remain absurdly high (around 49¢), completely ignoring the actual established political appointments.

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