Based on historical data, how frequently have sports apps like NCAA March Madness Live or MLB reached the #1 spot on the free app chart during late March?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on historical data, how frequently have sports apps like NCAA March Madness Live or MLB reached the #1 spot on the free app chart during late March?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What is the exact official schedule for the NCAA March Madness tournament or MLB Opening Day around March 31, and how might it impact app downloads?

AI-powered analysis for: What is the exact official schedule for the NCAA March Madness tournament or MLB Opening Day around March 31, and how might it impact app downloads?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Can you explain in the simplest terms how the #1 'Free App' will be determined exactly at 12:00 PM ET on March 31?

AI-powered analysis for: Can you explain in the simplest terms how the #1 'Free App' will be determined exactly at 12:00 PM ET on March 31?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What do the latest Google Trends show for 'Temu' vs. 'NCAA March Madness Live' search interest leading up to March 31?

AI-powered analysis for: What do the latest Google Trends show for 'Temu' vs. 'NCAA March Madness Live' search interest leading up to March 31?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How often does the Apple App Store 'Top Charts' page refresh, and is there a risk of caching delays causing disputes at the 12:00 PM ET resolution time?

AI-powered analysis for: How often does the Apple App Store 'Top Charts' page refresh, and is there a risk of caching delays causing disputes at the 12:00 PM ET resolution time?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Are there any recent viral marketing campaigns or breaking news driving sudden download spikes for AI apps like Claude or Google Gemini?

AI-powered analysis for: Are there any recent viral marketing campaigns or breaking news driving sudden download spikes for AI apps like Claude or Google Gemini?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are the top 3 bearish arguments for why NCAA March Madness Live might NOT be the #1 app on March 31 despite the basketball tournament?

AI-powered analysis for: What are the top 3 bearish arguments for why NCAA March Madness Live might NOT be the #1 app on March 31 despite the basketball tournament?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

For the MyTSA app, are there critical variables like the Easter travel surge around March 31 that could significantly boost its ranking?

AI-powered analysis for: For the MyTSA app, are there critical variables like the Easter travel surge around March 31 that could significantly boost its ranking?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

How quickly do app ranking prediction odds typically adjust on Polymarket compared to real-time App Store ranking trackers like Sensor Tower?

AI-powered analysis for: How quickly do app ranking prediction odds typically adjust on Polymarket compared to real-time App Store ranking trackers like Sensor Tower?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Given the current odds, is betting on consistently top-ranked apps like Temu 'picking up pennies' compared to the 'lottery ticket' of betting on MyTSA?

AI-powered analysis for: Given the current odds, is betting on consistently top-ranked apps like Temu 'picking up pennies' compared to the 'lottery ticket' of betting on MyTSA?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Which app option benefits the most from time decay (Theta) if the App Store rankings remain completely stagnant until the March 31 resolution?

AI-powered analysis for: Which app option benefits the most from time decay (Theta) if the App Store rankings remain completely stagnant until the March 31 resolution?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What specific catalysts (e.g., a viral TikTok trend) could push Threads or ChatGPT to the #1 spot within the final 48 hours?

AI-powered analysis for: What specific catalysts (e.g., a viral TikTok trend) could push Threads or ChatGPT to the #1 spot within the final 48 hours?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What is the order book slippage risk for a $1,000 position on lower-probability options like Google or ChatGPT in this App Store market?

AI-powered analysis for: What is the order book slippage risk for a $1,000 position on lower-probability options like Google or ChatGPT in this App Store market?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Is the community hype currently overheated on NCAA March Madness Live, and what is the risk of chasing highs if its peak download window has passed?

AI-powered analysis for: Is the community hype currently overheated on NCAA March Madness Live, and what is the risk of chasing highs if its peak download window has passed?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

To what extent are Apple's 'Top Charts' predictably based on download volume versus randomized algorithm changes or editorial boosting?

AI-powered analysis for: To what extent are Apple's 'Top Charts' predictably based on download volume versus randomized algorithm changes or editorial boosting?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are 3 other highly correlated prediction markets (e.g., related to sports tournaments or AI tech adoption) that could be used for combined hedging?

AI-powered analysis for: What are 3 other highly correlated prediction markets (e.g., related to sports tournaments or AI tech adoption) that could be used for combined hedging?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Assuming a $1,000 bet on the current favorite app, what is the estimated net ROI after accounting for deposit/withdrawal Gas fees and slippage?

AI-powered analysis for: Assuming a $1,000 bet on the current favorite app, what is the estimated net ROI after accounting for deposit/withdrawal Gas fees and slippage?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the predictability of App Store rankings, what is the recommended portfolio allocation percentage for betting on MLB or Temu using the Kelly criterion?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the predictability of App Store rankings, what is the recommended portfolio allocation percentage for betting on MLB or Temu using the Kelly criterion?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

What are 3 high-quality App Store Optimization (ASO) trackers or Twitter accounts to monitor for real-time ranking updates before the 12 PM ET deadline?

AI-powered analysis for: What are 3 high-quality App Store Optimization (ASO) trackers or Twitter accounts to monitor for real-time ranking updates before the 12 PM ET deadline?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current bid-ask spread for 'Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire', what is the optimal limit order price to ensure fills without losing edge?

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current bid-ask spread for 'Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire', what is the optimal limit order price to ensure fills without losing edge?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31?

Tech|$11.6k Vol|

21 hrs 57 mins

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.29 11:33

Top Undervalued

+2.2¢

ChatGPT(No)

+1.7¢

Claude by Anthropic(Yes)

+0.6¢

Google(Yes)

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 31? AI analysis: • +2.2¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

ChatGPT has consistently ranked #1 in the US App Store free charts recently. Given the market trends...

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

ChatGPT

YesNo

97.15¢

2.85¢

95¢

5¢

0¢

+2.2¢

Claude by Anthropic

YesNo

1.3¢

98.7¢

3¢

97¢

+1.7¢

0¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Exotics

Predicting the top App Store app on a specific day is somewhat niche and holds novelty value. While a common metric in tech and marketing circles, it is less mainstream for general prediction markets compared to political or macro events.

Movers

From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 01:55:14, the Yes price of ChatGPT surged from 54c to 95.5c due to its solid ranking in the App Store, significantly boosting market confidence. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of Google Gemini plummeted from 49.5c to 2.1c as its performance on the charts fell short of expectations, losing the chance to compete for the top spot. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of MLB plummeted from 49.5c to 16.5c due to the waning cyclical impact of sports events. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of Claude by Anthropic plummeted from 49.5c to 12.5c because of the overwhelming strength of its competitor ChatGPT. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of Google plummeted from 49.5c to 22c as market focus shifted to AI apps. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of Temu plummeted from 49.5c to 22c due to a natural decline for e-commerce apps. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of NCAA March Madness Live plummeted from 49.5c to 16.5c due to declining event popularity. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of Threads plummeted from 49.5c to 11c due to a drop in social media app rankings. From March 27, 2026, 21:35:17 to March 28, 2026, 00:50:15, the Yes price of MyTSA plummeted from 49.5c to 16.5c as the travel peak period ended.