This event directly targets Sweetgreen (SG)'s earnings. An earnings beat or miss will directly cause significant volatility in its stock price (Impact Score 4). As a small-cap stock, it is also influenced by the macro sentiment of the Russell 2000 index, although the single stock's earnings will have a negligible impact on the index itself.

From April 27, 2026 to April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 63.5c to 88.5c. The reason is a significant increase in market confidence for an earnings beat as the report date approaches, likely driven by positive channel checks or optimistic analyst expectations. From April 24, 2026 to April 27, 2026, the price steadily climbed from 53.5c to 63.5c, reflecting the early accumulation of bullish sentiment.

This prediction is directly linked to the post-earnings price action of Coinbase (COIN). An EPS beat or miss typically drives significant stock volatility ranging from 5% to 15%, making it an excellent hedging tool (Impact Score 4). Furthermore, as a major crypto exchange, its earnings data may slightly reflect the broader market's trading activity, causing a minor sentiment spillover to Bitcoin.

From April 27, 2026, to April 30, 2026, the price of the 'Yes' option plummeted from 79c to 4.5c. This is due to a significant downward revision in market expectations for Coinbase's profitability as the earnings date approaches, likely driven by negative impacts from recent market dynamics or insider information.

As a single-company earnings prediction, the outcome of this event will directly dictate the movement of IONQ stock. For high-growth, high-volatility companies like those in quantum computing, earnings beats or misses often trigger significant price swings of over 10%-15%, making it highly valuable for hedging.

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 75.5c to 96.4c, and subsequently stabilized around 91c. The reason is heightened market speculation and significantly increased investor confidence in an earnings beat against the -$0.51 estimate as the May 6 earnings date extremely approaches, potentially boosted by recent broader market sentiment towards the quantum computing sector. April 26, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 65c to 83.5c. The reason is heightened market speculation and significantly increased investor confidence in an earnings beat against the -$0.51 estimate as the May 6 earnings date approaches.

Uber's earnings results will directly and significantly drive volatility in its own stock price (impact score 4). Furthermore, as a leading player in the ride-hailing and delivery market, its performance will have tangible spillover effects on major competitor Lyft's stock (impact score 3). The impact on broader indices is negligible.

Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 51.5c to 23c. This crash is likely attributed to sudden negative catalysts (such as weak earnings reports from industry peers or bearish reports from key analysts), which drastically reduced confidence in Uber's ability to beat the consensus estimates.

There is a significant divergence. While the official Wall Street consensus estimate ($0.71) served as a baseline at market creation and historically suggested a mildly optimistic outlook (>50%) for large-cap beats, the current prediction market prices the 'Yes' probability at only 23%. This indicates that smart money is heavily diverging from the static Wall Street consensus figures, actively pricing in a severe earnings miss.

The direct underlying asset of this event is the New York Times (NYT) stock. An earnings beat or miss is the primary catalyst for its short-term price action, typically triggering a medium-sized (around 5%-10%) intraday or gap movement, making it highly tradable. Because NYT carries negligible weight in major indices, this event has virtually zero impact on broader markets like the S&P 500.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged further from 85c to 98.5c. This was driven by the extreme solidification of market consensus regarding outperforming digital subscriptions as the earnings date approaches, essentially eliminating downside risks. April 26, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.5c to 89.5c. This was driven by NYT's annual shareholder meeting on April 22, where management revealed robust digital subscription growth, margin expansion, and highly optimistic forward guidance for 2026. Additionally, major news events like the US-Iran geopolitical tensions significantly boosted news consumption, driving up market confidence in an earnings beat for Q1.

The primary asset directly correlated with this event is Dropbox (DBX) stock. The earnings result (beat or miss) will have a direct and significant impact on DBX's share price immediately upon release. Its impact on broader market indices is negligible.

From April 28, 2026 to April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 97c, as the market developed a strong consensus regarding Dropbox's robust profitability and the accretive effect of large-scale share buybacks approaching the earnings date, leading to an influx of buyers. Previously, no price movement exceeding 10 cents had been observed.

Disney's earnings beat or miss will directly cause significant price volatility in its stock (DIS), making it a standard tradable earnings event. The impact on the broader S&P 500 index is negligible.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 84c to 97c, as intensive upward revisions from analysts near the earnings date solidified market consensus on the strong profitability of the streaming business and park margins. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 51c to 88c, driven by positive preliminary estimates and market chatter regarding strong streaming subscriber growth and solid recovery across its business segments, significantly boosting investor confidence in an earnings beat.

McDonald's earnings results will directly cause significant price movement in its underlying stock (MCD) on the day of the release (typically a medium-impact, tradable event around ~5%). Additionally, as a bellwether for global consumer spending and the restaurant industry, its performance will have a negligible but existent spillover effect on the S&P 500.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded sharply from 54.5c to 81.5c. This was driven by quickly restored market confidence in McDonald's ability to beat the $2.75 Q1 EPS estimate, with dip buyers pushing the price back up. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 76.5c to 54.5c. This may be due to large traders adjusting positions or market concerns over potential revenue softness in McDonald's upcoming Q1 earnings report leading to a sell-off.

Occidental Petroleum's (OXY) earnings results will directly determine the outcome of this event. An earnings beat or miss will directly trigger medium-level volatility in its stock price (OXY), typically around 3%-8%. As an oil producer, its performance may vaguely reflect industry conditions but has negligible actual impact on global crude oil prices.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.5c to 93.5c, as the market likely digested strong whisper numbers or favorable commodity fundamentals heading into earnings, causing a sharp resurgence in bullish sentiment and heavy buying. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 82.5c (and 70c) to 50.5c, as the market likely digested new bearish forecasts or macroeconomic commodity price volatility as earnings approach, causing earlier extreme optimism to rapidly cool off. April 24, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.5c to 91.5c, due to analysts upgrading earnings estimates and the company's historical beat record attracting heavy buying.

Whether Amplitude (AMPL) beats or misses earnings estimates will directly and significantly impact its stock price (often causing a >5% move), classifying as a major tradable event for the specific equity. However, given its relatively small market cap, this event will have negligible spillover effects on broader tech indices like the Nasdaq 100.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' experienced massive volatility, surging from 14.5c to 72.95c. This was likely driven by a significant shift in market sentiment as the earnings date approached, potentially due to new capital inflows betting on an earnings beat, or the correction of previous extreme price swings caused by low liquidity. On April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 78c to 14.5c, likely due to a short-term liquidity shock or large individual sell orders causing an instantaneous price drop, which subsequently rebounded quickly.

This event directly dictates the post-earnings price action of Expedia (EXPE). An earnings beat or miss typically causes significant volatility in the individual stock, making it a major tradable event (impact score 4). Additionally, the stock prices of industry peers in travel booking (such as Booking and Airbnb) may also experience minor fluctuations due to sector sentiment driven by the earnings report.

This prediction is directly tied to AppLovin's (APP) earnings. A beat or miss in earnings typically results in a significant, tradable price movement for the individual stock (5%-15% range). Since APP's market cap has limited influence on the broader market, the impact on the Nasdaq 100 index is negligible.

From April 30, 2026 to May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' fluctuated by over 10c, bouncing between 84.65c and 95.2c. This volatility is due to the approaching earnings release date, triggering short-term speculation and profit-taking by early investors. From April 26, 2026 to April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 57.85c to 90.85c, and has remained at elevated levels near 90c in the following days. This massive spike indicates that market participants received a strong signal supporting an earnings beat by Applovin, possibly due to excellent financial results from industry peers or significant upward revisions of earnings guidance by investment banks.

AMD's earnings directly dictate the short-term trajectory of its own stock (AMD), typically triggering highly volatile price swings (high impact). Furthermore, as a leading semiconductor firm, its financial performance and forward guidance create strong sentiment and valuation spillovers for peers like Nvidia (NVDA), while also exerting a moderate marginal influence on the broader Nasdaq 100 index.

April 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 52c all the way to 97.1c, before stabilizing around 94c. The reason is the massive influx of capital into the bullish option as market confidence in stronger-than-expected AI chip demand peaked right before the earnings release. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' jumped from 61.5c to 86.5c, before dropping back to 52c over the next two days, likely due to market overreaction to forward guidance from certain analysts or rumors, followed by short-term profit-taking.

Tripadvisor beating or missing earnings expectations will directly and significantly impact its own stock price (TRIP), potentially causing a swing of 10% or more. Additionally, as a player in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, its results may modestly influence the intraday sentiment and pricing of competitors like Expedia (EXPE) and Booking Holdings (BKNG).

April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 58c to around 92c. This was driven by a strong increase in market confidence that Tripadvisor will beat the relatively low estimate of -$0.06 for Q1, alongside positive sentiment from better-than-expected earnings in the broader travel sector.

The earnings result directly dictates the price action of BuzzFeed (BZFD) stock. As a small-cap company, an EPS beat or miss typically triggers double-digit percentage price swings, offering direct hedging value, though it has zero impact on broader market indices.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 52c to 20c, likely due to continued pessimistic expectations regarding the company's fundamentals and risk-aversion positioning as earnings approach. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 31c to 50c, potentially driven by short-term speculative buying or rumors regarding cost-cutting measures.