This event directly targets News Corp's (NWSA) earnings results. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers a noticeable intraday price swing in the specific stock (usually around 5%, classified as medium impact). Consequently, participating in this prediction market can serve as a direct hedge for long or short positions in NWSA equity.

2026-04-29 to 2026-04-30, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded from 51.5c to 83c, likely due to returning pre-earnings optimism or positive read-throughs from peers. 2026-04-28 to 2026-04-29, the price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 88.5c to 51.5c, possibly due to profit-taking or weakening broader market sentiment. 2026-04-27 to 2026-04-28, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 58.5c to 88.5c, reflecting strong market expectations for an earnings beat.

This prediction event is directly tied to KKR's quarterly earnings performance. An earnings beat (or miss) is a classic tradable event that typically triggers medium to significant price gaps or intraday volatility in the individual stock post-release (usually around 5%), making it a direct hedging instrument.

April 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' rebounded sharply from 51c to around 75.5c, likely due to positive read-throughs from peers' strong earnings or reassuring analyst notes revitalizing market confidence in KKR's fee-related earnings and realization activities as the release approaches. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 77c to 50c, likely due to unfavorable interpretations of macroeconomic or industry data as the earnings date approached, triggering a massive sell-off of bullish positions. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 59c to 77c, driven by strong early market optimism regarding KKR's AUM growth and robust capital market activities.

Whether MetLife (MET) beats earnings expectations will directly impact its stock price, as earnings releases typically cause a 3% to 5% price movement, making it a tradable event. However, its impact on the broader market (S&P 500) will be negligible.

Between April 30, 2026, 13:33 and 16:48, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 80.5c to 44c. The price subsequently fluctuated between 42c and 52.5c, currently stabilizing around 51.5c. This dramatic drop of over 10 cents indicates that the market received significant new information (possibly macroeconomic data, peer earnings reports, or leaked insider info) during this window, leading to a fundamental reversal in the perceived probability of an earnings beat for MetLife. Previously, no price movements exceeding 10 cents had been observed over the prior 3-day window.

Papa John's (PZZA) earnings results will directly and significantly impact its own stock price. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers an intraday price fluctuation of around 5% or more, making it a classic tradable event with direct hedging value.

Between April 30, 2026, and May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' pulled back from 83c to 57.5c, likely due to profit-taking by investors as the earnings date approaches, coupled with a shift towards a more cautious sentiment given the company's previously issued weak sales guidance. Between April 29, 2026, and April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged back from 41.5c to 83c, indicating that the previous plunge might have been due to misinformation or market overreaction, with the price subsequently correcting back to a high conviction level of an earnings beat. Between April 28, 2026, and April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 92.9c to 41.5c, likely due to leaked internal forecasts, analyst downgrades, or a sudden reversal in market sentiment.

This event is directly tied to Warby Parker's (WRBY) quarterly financial performance. An earnings beat or miss typically triggers significant price volatility in the individual stock (often 5%-15%), providing substantial direct hedging value for WRBY equity or options. However, the company is too small to impact broader market indices like the S&P 500.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' further declined from 36.5c to 24.5c, continuing the previous sell-off trend, most likely caused by extreme deviations due to lack of liquidity or continuous short selling by large capital. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 75c to 33c. This is highly likely due to low liquidity or a large sell order causing short-term volatility, rather than fundamental negative news. April 27, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' dropped from 66.5c to 50c before rebounding to 75c, reflecting intense market speculation and positioning ahead of the earnings release.

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently implies only a 24.5% probability for Option_'Yes' (EPS > $0.05). However, mainstream media and Wall Street analysts have a consensus EPS estimate of around $0.11 for Warby Parker this quarter. The severe pessimism priced into the prediction market heavily contradicts the optimistic consensus estimates from major institutions.

The earnings result for Pixelworks (PXLW) will directly and significantly impact its own stock price. An EPS beat or miss could trigger severe volatility; for a small-cap tech stock like this, daily price swings often exceed 10%. Therefore, it provides strong and direct hedging value.

This event is directly tied to the fundamentals of Williams Companies (WMB). An earnings beat or miss typically causes an intraday or post-earnings price fluctuation of roughly 3% to 7% for the individual stock, making it a tradable event with significant impact. Spillover effects on broader market indices are negligible.

2026-04-29 17:38 to 2026-04-29 19:48, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 40.5c to 72.5c. This was driven by structural tailwinds in the natural gas sector and recent upward revisions of WMB's Q1 EPS estimates by analysts, prompting a rapid shift toward optimistic market sentiment.

This event is directly tied to the earnings performance of Opendoor (OPEN). An earnings beat or miss will directly trigger significant price volatility in the stock (typically ranging from 5% to over 15%), making it highly relevant for hedging and trading OPEN stock directly.

April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 48.5c to 75.5c and then quickly fell back to 43.5c. This may have been caused by short-term speculation or fat-finger errors affecting market liquidity, after which the price returned to rational expectations. In the previous period, market sentiment remained relatively stable as investors awaited further news or indicators closer to the earnings release date.

This event directly predicts the quarterly earnings performance of Fidelity National Financial (FNF). An EPS surprise would lead to a tradable price movement in FNF stock (estimated impact around 5%), marking it as a medium-impact (Score 3) event for the individual stock.

From 2026-04-29 to 2026-04-30, the price of Option_'Yes' experienced extreme volatility, surging from 47c to 74c, then plummeting to 33c, before recovering and stabilizing at 59.5c. This significant movement is likely attributable to individual large trades in a low-liquidity environment or rapid adjustments in market expectations ahead of the earnings release.

The rules are somewhat complex. Key points to note: 1) Resolution is based on non-GAAP EPS in official earnings; 2) If missing, SeekingAlpha's non-GAAP EPS is used; 3) If still missing, it falls back to GAAP EPS; 4) ADR/ADS and international listing rules apply. These fallback criteria increase the risk of the resolution diverging from the face-value expectation.

Flutter Entertainment's (FLUT) quarterly earnings performance will directly impact its stock price. Beating or missing estimates typically causes an individual stock to fluctuate by around 5%, making it a classic tradable event.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50.5c to 91.5c, then settled at 76c. This was likely driven by new analyst reports or market rumors suggesting a significant earnings beat as the release date approached, prompting an influx of capital. April 26, 2026 - April 28, 2026: The price dropped from 67c to 50.5c. This may be due to unfavorable signals from analyst estimate adjustments or macroeconomic headwinds in the sector, causing the market to dial back confidence toward a 50/50 toss-up. Around April 25, 2026: The price hovered in the 60c-67c range, reflecting relatively optimistic early expectations.

The prediction market currently prices 'Yes' at 76.5c, implying a very high probability of an earnings beat, which diverges significantly from the traditional fair value estimate (55%). This divergence may stem from short-term market exuberance or specific capital inflows, detached from rational fundamental expectations.

This event directly dictates whether AMC Entertainment beats its quarterly earnings estimates. The earnings result will have a significant impact on AMC's stock price (earnings releases typically cause high volatility, hence a score of 4). As a small-cap stock, it may also have a negligible impact on the Russell 2000 index.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 76c to 90c. This is likely due to the impending earnings release, with capital pouring in based on extreme optimism regarding recent box office performance or favorable forward-looking data. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 74.5c. This is likely due to the market pricing in strong box office recovery data or optimistic analyst revisions as the earnings date approaches, leading to a surge of bets on an earnings beat.

The event directly predicts Draftkings's (DKNG) quarterly earnings (whether EPS beats consensus). An earnings beat or miss typically causes significant stock price movement for the specific company (usually between 5%-15%, corresponding to an impact score of 4). Meanwhile, as a mid-cap/growth stock, its earnings have a negligible impact on broader market indices like the Russell 2000 or S&P 500.

April 26, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plunged from 73.5c to 39c. This was driven by Wall Street downgrades (e.g., MoffettNathanson) citing competitive threats from prediction markets, which caused a sharp decline in the stock price and heightened fears that the company will miss its Q1 earnings estimates.

This prediction event directly impacts Sunoco's (SUN) stock price. An earnings beat (EPS > $1.63) typically triggers a stock rally, making it a tradable event with a medium impact score of 3. Given Sunoco's role in energy retail and distribution, there is a negligible and indirect connection to Crude Oil pricing.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 73.5c to 22.5c. The reason is likely due to downward revisions in EPS estimates by some analysts and market concerns sparked by the departure of the company's M&A leader. April 29, 2026 - April 29, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 48c to 72.5c. The reason was optimistic pre-earnings outlooks and price target upgrades from firms like Mizuho driven by margin improvement expectations.

PayPal's earnings results will directly and significantly impact its own stock (PYPL) price, as an earnings beat or miss typically triggers a swing of over 5%. While PayPal is a component of the Nasdaq 100, the impact of a single company's earnings on the broader index is negligible.

April 30, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' peaked at 92.5c from 86.5c before retreating to 79.5c. This is likely due to early investors taking profits as the earnings date approaches, causing a minor pullback after the top. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 51c to 85c. The reason is that as the May 5 earnings date approaches, market confidence in PayPal beating the $1.27 EPS consensus estimate significantly strengthened, likely driven by favorable payment industry data or strong whisper numbers. Previously, there were no price movements exceeding 10c, with the price remaining relatively stable between 50c and 53c.

Whether Pfizer (PFE) beats EPS estimates will directly impact its stock price, typically causing a medium-level (score 3) movement for the individual stock upon earnings release. The impact on the broader S&P 500 index would be negligible (score 1).

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 76c to 96.5c, as analysts revised their Q1 EPS estimates for Pfizer upward to around $0.74, boosting market confidence that it would beat the $0.72 strike. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 87c, as the market regained confidence in Pfizer's ability to beat earnings estimates after a brief panic, likely based on new guidance or analyst re-affirmations. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 85c to 50c, likely due to a market repricing of Q1 earnings expectations, potentially triggered by analyst downgrades or recent negative sector data. April 24, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' climbed steadily from 67.5c to 85c, as the market initially held an optimistic view that Pfizer would continue its trend of earnings beats.