May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.