April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The Yes price for 60-61°F surged from 20.5c to 48c (before settling at 44c), and 62-63°F also spiked from 17c to 34.5c (then normalized to 27c). This was driven by weather forecast models solidifying the extent of the weekend cooldown, confirming that a deep marine layer would suppress the airport's high temperatures to the low 60s.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 22.5c to 49c, while the 25°C option dropped from 44c to 29c, because as the resolution date approaches, actual observed temperature data leans more towards 24°C.

Weather forecasting is part of daily life and not absurd, but creating a prediction market for the exact high temperature of a specific city on a given day is relatively niche among mainstream audiences, giving it a moderate level of novelty.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of '29°C or higher' surged from 60c to 78.5c, while '28°C' dropped from 33.5c to 12.5c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts confirming a peak temperature around 84°F (28.9°C) as the resolution date approaches, concentrating market confidence on the highest temperature bracket.

Betting on the highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a typical weather prediction market. While somewhat niche to the general public, it is a standard topic in prediction markets and meteorological quantitative circles, not extremely bizarre.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of '13°C' surged from ~19c to 33c, and '14°C' surged from 24.5c to 37.5c. Concurrently, '15°C' plummeted from 25c to 13c, and '16°C' plunged from 11c to 2c. This was caused by more precise weather forecasts becoming available as the target date approached, lowering the expected high temperature to around 13-14°C.

On May 1, 2026, the price of the 11°C option surged from 13.5c to 37c, while the 13°C option plummeted from 28c to 10.5c, as updated meteorological forecasts narrowed the expected high temperature range closer to 11°C-12°C rather than 13°C. On April 30, 2026, the 11°C option briefly plunged from 28c to 10c due to short-term fluctuations in early weather models, which shifted volume toward the 12°C and 13°C options.