April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 15.5c to 42.5c, and the 23°C option surged from 8.1c to 25.9c, while the 20°C option plummeted from 21.5c to 3.4c. This was driven by the latest weather forecasts nearing the resolution date, which significantly revised the high temperature estimate for May 2 upwards. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026 (Previous History), the price of the 22°C option surged from 15.5c to 34.5c, and the 23°C option surged from 8.1c to 23.1c, while the 18°C and lower options plummeted. This was driven by updated authoritative weather forecasts (such as the Met Office) nearing the resolution date, which significantly revised the high temperature estimate for May 2 upwards from 18°C to 22°C-23°C.

This is a highly specific, gossip-driven political market. Unless there is breaking legal news regarding him, the general public does not typically speculate on whether a former FBI Director will have a mugshot released within a specific week, making it quite novel and exotic.

April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' experienced significant volatility in a very short period, surging from 12.5c to 25.5c, then dropping to 6c, rebounding to 16c, and finally stabilizing around 8.5c. This was likely due to breaking news about Comey's potential indictment or imminent surrender, which triggered speculative buying. Subsequently, market participants realized that mugshots in federal cases are rarely made public, causing the price to fall back and fluctuate to find equilibrium.

The rules exclude regular replies but include main feed replies, relying on a specific third-party tracker for resolution. These nuanced definitions and reliance on an external tool can cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and manual counting, potentially leading to disputes.

Predicting the specific range of tweets a public figure will make in a designated 48-hour window is a highly niche, entertainment-oriented market, extremely rare in traditional forecasting or financial analysis.

May 1, 2026 08:08 - May 1, 2026 12:28, the 40-64 option increased from 59.5c to 71.5c, as Elon Musk's posting frequency remained steadily low as the tracking period progressed, further solidifying market consensus in the 40-64 bracket. April 30, 2026 23:28 - May 1, 2026 07:03, the 40-64 option increased from 54.5c to 60.5c, and the 65-89 option dropped from 19.5c to 16.5c, as Elon Musk's posting frequency remained relatively low during the first 15 hours of the tracking period, solidifying market consensus in the 40-64 bracket. April 28, 2026 19:38 - April 30, 2026 23:28, the 40-64 option increased from 43.5c to 54.5c, the <40 option surged from 6.5c to a peak of 27c, and the 65-89 option dropped from 38.5c to 19.5c. This occurred because as the resolution period officially began, his actual posting rate was slow, causing the market to significantly downward-adjust expectations for his total posts. April 28, 2026 12:03 - April 28, 2026 15:18, prices for the 90-114 and 115-139 options briefly spiked from 10.5c and 2.45c to 45c and 41.85c respectively before dropping back, while the 65-89 option plummeted from 37.5c to 21.5c before recovering to 36.5c, likely due to a temporary tracker data anomaly or large market orders causing extreme spread widening. April 28, 2026 12:03 - April 28, 2026 13:08, multiple high-value options (190-214, 215-239, 240+) experienced abnormal price spikes from under 1c to 49.95c before quickly dropping back, primarily caused by illiquid order books leading to mispricing or large market buy orders (fat-finger trades).

Predicting the daily highest temperature in a specific city is a common novelty topic in prediction markets. While not as mainstream as elections or macro events, it has a regular participant base and is not extremely bizarre.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Man on Fire: Season 1' surged from ~26.5c to around 60.5c as viewership data heading into the weekend showed it taking a commanding lead for the #1 spot. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' saw a sharp spike from 10c to a peak of 45c before settling at 32.5c, reflecting sudden viral momentum and a market repricing of its competitive chances. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Running Point: Season 2' dropped from 42.5c to ~30.5c, losing its frontrunner status as competing shows gained stronger late-week traction.