Between April 30, 2026, and May 1, 2026, the price of the '48-49°F' option dropped from 12.5c to 2.45c, as weather forecasts became clearer closer to the date, making lower temperature intervals highly unlikely. No other significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed over the last 3 days.

While predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city is occasionally discussed in daily life, betting on it to the exact whole degree remains a relatively niche and novel market category.

April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of the 7°C option surged from 15.5c to 39.5c, and the 6°C option climbed from 5.5c to 17.5c, while the 9°C option plummeted from 35.5c to 8c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, short-term weather models have consistently revised the expected high temperature downwards to around 7°C (44-45°F), causing market liquidity to quickly pivot towards the lower temperature brackets.

From April 30, 2026 to May 1, 2026, the price of the 25°C option surged from 22c to 55.5c, as the weather forecast data became much clearer with the approaching date, indicating the highest temperature is highly likely to fall in this range. From April 30, 2026 to May 1, 2026, the price of the 24°C option plummeted from 30.5c to 16.5c, due to upward revisions in temperature forecasts, decreasing its probability. From April 30, 2026 to May 1, 2026, the price of the '26°C or higher' option fluctuated wildly between 12.5c and 39.75c, eventually settling at 22.9c, reflecting the forecast margin of error and speculation on extreme high temperatures.

While weather forecasting is common, a precise prediction market for the exact peak temperature in a specific city (Lucknow) on a particular date is a niche and somewhat novel topic for mainstream prediction platforms.

May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of '36°C or below' surged from 45.5c to a high of 81.5c before settling at 72c, while '37°C' plummeted from 48c to 19c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, the official source Wunderground stabilized its forecast around 35-36°C. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: '36°C or below' climbed from 32c to 70c before pulling back, as weather forecast models underwent several minor adjustments within the 48-hour window.

There is a notable divergence among mainstream forecasts. Media and weather agencies like India Today and AccuWeather predict highs of 40°C to 43°C for May 2, while the market's sole resolution source, Wunderground, predicts roughly 35.6°C (96°F). The market price accurately reflects the specific resolution rules (following Wunderground), causing it to sharply diverge from broader mainstream expectations.

While weather prediction markets are not uncommon on some platforms, predicting the exact temperature range for a specific city on a specific day remains a relatively niche and unconventional topic for the general public.

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market is currently assigning a combined probability of 46% (21c and 25c) to temperatures 80°F and above. However, the official NWS and local forecasts explicitly project the high for May 3 to be around 76-78°F. The market is significantly overestimating the likelihood of temperatures reaching 80°F+, likely due to stale long-range forecast data that traders have not yet updated.