With only 4 days left until resolution, market expectations have shifted significantly downward. Rec...

March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026: The '40.0-40.4' bracket collapsed from 76.5c to 17c, while the '39.5-39.9' and '39.0-39.4' brackets surged from 13c and 6c to peak at 52.5c and 37.5c respectively. This was driven by new, lower approval polls entering the Silver Bulletin over the weekend, causing a distinct downward shift in the model's trendline. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026: Massive volatility occurred across all brackets. The '40.0-40.4' option surged from 41c to a peak of 75c (before settling around 50c), while lower brackets like '<39.0' and '39.0-39.4' plummeted (e.g., '<39.0' dropped from 45c to sub-1c before rebounding to 7c). This was driven by a new data point update in the Silver Bulletin model, causing the market to rapidly converge around the 40% mark, followed by a slight correction as traders reassessed potential residual polling variance.

The specified time window for this prediction market (March 24-30) is coming to an end, and MicroStr...

This event is directly linked to MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock price, as its valuation is tightly coupled with its Bitcoin holdings. A new purchase announcement is typically viewed as a bullish signal, potentially triggering stock volatility (Score 3). It also impacts Bitcoin's price, but given BTC's large market cap, the effect of a single announcement is relatively minor (Score 2).

March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' collapsed from ~96c to less than 1c. The reason is that the specified time window (March 24-30) is almost over without any purchase announcement from MicroStrategy, causing the probability of the event to approach zero. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged from 50c to 94c, driven by MicroStrategy's disclosure of a massive new capital raising plan (~$44B for BTC acquisitions), cementing expectations for another purchase before quarter-end.

Meek Mill has heavily promoted his AI project on social media and publicly called out to Y Combinato...

A famous rapper (Meek Mill) crossing paths with a top Silicon Valley tech incubator (Y Combinator) is a highly bizarre and unexpected combination. Unless triggered by a specific rumor or tweet, nobody would normally associate the two, making it an extremely exotic market.

The prediction market currently assigns a 51% probability of success, but mainstream tech media and the investment community are highly skeptical [4]. They view it as a mere social media hype ('48-hour social media carnival with zero on-chain activity'), far from passing YC's rigorous vetting process [4].

The prediction market has entered the NCAA Final Four stage, with Michigan and Arizona continuing to...

March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Michigan's price surged from approximately 18.5c to 34.5c, as they won their Elite Eight game and successfully advanced to the Final Four, significantly boosting their championship prospects. March 28, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Arizona's price surged from approximately 26.75c to 34.6c, also due to a crucial victory that solidified their status as a title favorite. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, Connecticut's price experienced extreme volatility, dropping to about 1.1c before surging to 14.5c and stabilizing around 13.3c, likely because they pulled off a dramatic comeback from the brink of elimination to reach the Final Four. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Purdue's price crashed from 10.15c to 0.3c, as they were eliminated from the tournament. March 28, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Iowa's price crashed from 2.45c to 0.05c, as they were eliminated. March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, Illinois's price surged from 5.25c to 12.75c and continued to rise steadily above 17c, following a crucial victory that advanced them to the next round, significantly boosting their championship prospects. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, Houston's price crashed from approximately 11c to 0.05c after being upset and eliminated from the tournament. March 23, 2026, Florida's price crashed from 10.65c to 0.05c after the defending champion and No. 1 seed was stunned by No. 9 Iowa, 73-72, in the Round of 32. This massive upset fundamentally reshaped the market's probability distribution.

1. **Legal Checkmate**: The Supreme Court's Feb 20, 2026 ruling striking down IEEPA tariff authority...

Canada is a core US trading partner; a general tariff would severely disrupt North American supply chains, particularly in auto manufacturing (e.g., GM), and trigger imported inflation. A 'Yes' resolution would be bearish for the broad equity market (S&P 500) and stocks reliant on cross-border supply chains, push US Treasury yields higher (inflation expectations), and likely boost the DXY due to risk-off sentiment and yield differentials.

From March 10, 2026, to March 16, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' declined steadily from 21c to 11.5c. The driver was the market absorbing two key realities: first, the administration's launch of a Section 301 investigation on March 12-13 signals a long-term bureaucratic process rather than immediate tariffs; second, the confirmation that the active Section 122 global tariff continues to exempt Canada, coupled with the SCOTUS ruling limiting other rapid options.

Significant divergence exists. The market price (11.5c) implies a >10% probability, which disconnects from the legal reality. SCOTUS neutralized IEEPA; the only active fast-track tool (Section 122) is both global (disqualified by rules) and exempts Canada. The only specific path (Section 301) is too slow to complete by June 30. The actual probability is likely near zero.