[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth, spread, and volume (currently only $5700+) for the 'MrBeast 100m views' market, and update the fair value assessment based on his most recent video's release date and first-week performance.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the bid/ask depth, spread, and volume (currently only $5700+) for the 'MrBeast 100m views' market, and update the fair value assessment based on his most recent video's release date and first-week performance.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for all long-form videos posted on MrBeast's main channel over the past 12 months and calculate the percentage that actually surpassed 100 million views within the first 7 days.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for all long-form videos posted on MrBeast's main channel over the past 12 months and calculate the percentage that actually surpassed 100 million views within the first 7 days.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search Twitter (X) and Instagram to see if MrBeast or his team have teased the release of a 'production-heavy' or major video before the end of March 2026.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search Twitter (X) and Instagram to see if MrBeast or his team have teased the release of a 'production-heavy' or major video before the end of March 2026.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): verify via market rules or Discord discussions whether 'any YouTube video' includes YouTube Shorts. If Shorts are included, how does their difficulty in hitting 100M views compare to long-form videos?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): verify via market rules or Discord discussions whether 'any YouTube video' includes YouTube Shorts. If Shorts are included, how does their difficulty in hitting 100M views compare to long-form videos?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Given today is Feb 28, 2026, and the deadline is March 31, search for MrBeast's typical 'upload interval.' Is there enough time for him to upload a new video AND for it to accumulate 7 days of data before the deadline?

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Given today is Feb 28, 2026, and the deadline is March 31, search for MrBeast's typical 'upload interval.' Is there enough time for him to upload a new video AND for it to accumulate 7 days of data before the deadline?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Search for recent analytics on MrBeast's video metrics and list the top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., algorithm changes, viewer fatigue, declining average CTR).

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Search for recent analytics on MrBeast's video metrics and list the top 3 bearish arguments (e.g., algorithm changes, viewer fatigue, declining average CTR).. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Sports] Key Variables Confirmation: Compare historical data to identify which video types (e.g., Survival Challenges vs. Philanthropy vs. Game Recreations) are most likely to hit 100M views in the first week, and check for rumors of such content.

AI-powered analysis for: [Sports] Key Variables Confirmation: Compare historical data to identify which video types (e.g., Survival Challenges vs. Philanthropy vs. Game Recreations) are most likely to hit 100M views in the first week, and check for rumors of such content.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rumor] Trivia & Controversy Summary: Search for any recent major controversies or negative news surrounding MrBeast (e.g., staff allegations, lawsuits) that could lead to viewer boycotts or algorithmic suppression.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rumor] Trivia & Controversy Summary: Search for any recent major controversies or negative news surrounding MrBeast (e.g., staff allegations, lawsuits) that could lead to viewer boycotts or algorithmic suppression.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Intuitive Odds Translation: Translate the current 'Yes' price into an intuitive probability metaphor (e.g., 'The market thinks the chance of him dropping a viral hit in March is as likely as flipping heads twice in a row').

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Intuitive Odds Translation: Translate the current 'Yes' price into an intuitive probability metaphor (e.g., 'The market thinks the chance of him dropping a viral hit in March is as likely as flipping heads twice in a row').. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze how quickly the price of 'Yes' will decay if MrBeast has not uploaded a new video by March 15th.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Analyze how quickly the price of 'Yes' will decay if MrBeast has not uploaded a new video by March 15th.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract the core disagreement from Polymarket comments—are bettors skeptical that he will upload at all, or that the video will fail to reach 100M views even if uploaded?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract the core disagreement from Polymarket comments—are bettors skeptical that he will upload at all, or that the video will fail to reach 100M views even if uploaded?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Given the high variance of MrBeast's videos, is buying 'Yes' currently akin to 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate, high odds) or 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds)?

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Given the high variance of MrBeast's videos, is buying 'Yes' currently akin to 'buying a lottery ticket' (low win rate, high odds) or 'picking up pennies' (high win rate, low odds)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Based on the current low volume of ~$5700, calculate the estimated slippage for a $500 entry and assess the difficulty of exiting at a favorable price.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Order Book Depth & Slippage Assessment: Based on the current low volume of ~$5700, calculate the estimated slippage for a $500 entry and assess the difficulty of exiting at a favorable price.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Analyze if there are specific holidays (e.g., pre-Easter) or global events in March that historically boost overall YouTube traffic and viral potential.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Analyze if there are specific holidays (e.g., pre-Easter) or global events in March that historically boost overall YouTube traffic and viral potential.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Look for correlations with other MrBeast-related markets (e.g., Subscriber Count, Yearly Views) to identify potential hedging opportunities.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Look for correlations with other MrBeast-related markets (e.g., Subscriber Count, Yearly Views) to identify potential hedging opportunities.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Assuming you estimate the true probability of him uploading and hitting 100M in March is 20% based on history, calculate the recommended portfolio allocation using the Kelly Criterion given current odds.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Assuming you estimate the true probability of him uploading and hitting 100M in March is 20% based on history, calculate the recommended portfolio allocation using the Kelly Criterion given current odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a specific date (e.g., March 20) as a hard stop-loss trigger—if no new video is announced by then, the 'Yes' position must be liquidated regardless of loss.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Stop-Loss Red Line Setting: Suggest a specific date (e.g., March 20) as a hard stop-loss trigger—if no new video is announced by then, the 'Yes' position must be liquidated regardless of loss.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Breaking] Momentum (RSI) Judgment: Calculate the specific view count threshold needed in the first 24 hours (e.g., 40M+) to statistically guarantee hitting 100M views within 7 days.

AI-powered analysis for: [Breaking] Momentum (RSI) Judgment: Calculate the specific view count threshold needed in the first 24 hours (e.g., 40M+) to statistically guarantee hitting 100M views within 7 days.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Given the low liquidity, provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) on the 'No' side to catch panic selling if a video is suddenly released.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Given the low liquidity, provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) on the 'No' side to catch panic selling if a video is suddenly released.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the potential excess return is worth locking up capital until the March 31 resolution date, compared to risk-free DeFi yields or higher-turnover prediction events.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the potential excess return is worth locking up capital until the March 31 resolution date, compared to risk-free DeFi yields or higher-turnover prediction events.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Culture|$35.0k Vol|

12 days 5 hrs

100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

6.6¢

93.4¢

6¢

94¢

0¢

+0.6¢

AI Insights:

03.15 15:24 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market just experienced a failed 'weekend upload' cycle. The spike to 25c on March 13 was a speculative bet on a Saturday (March 14) upload, which did not materialize, crashing the price back to 6.5c. With only 15 days left until March 31, the effective deadline to upload a video that gets a full 7-day run is roughly March 24. This leaves a narrow ~9-day window. Given that even *if* a video drops, the historical probability of hitting 100M views in week 1 is low (requiring a 'Squid Game' level viral hit), the current 6-7c price accurately reflects the compounded risk of 'no upload' and 'underperformance'.

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Rule Risk

There are two main risks: 1. **Time Truncation**: The rule requires 100M views 'by March 31'. If a video is posted on March 30, it effectively has only 24 hours to hit the target before the market closes, denying it the full 7-day window. 2. **Format Ambiguity**: The rule specifies 'any YouTube video'. While typically implying long-form content, if MrBeast posts a YouTube Short on his main channel that hits 100M views, it technically satisfies the criteria, potentially conflicting with bettors' expectations of a 'main event' video.

Movers

March 13, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Option_'Yes' crashed from 25c to 6.5c because the highly anticipated 'weekend upload' (typically Saturday) did not occur. With the effective window (requiring 7 days for views to accumulate) shrinking to under 10 days, disappointment triggered a sell-off. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Option_'Yes' surged from 8.5c to 25c as traders speculated on an imminent video release ahead of the weekend, attempting to front-run a potential viral drop.

100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? - AI Odds Analysis

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