Elections|$321 Vol|
3 days 4 hrs2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections: Party Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Libre – Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE)
YesNo
Christian Democratic Party (PDC)
YesNo
Unity Bloc (UNIDAD)
YesNo
Popular Alliance (AP)
YesNo
Autonomy for Bolivia – Súmate (APB Súmate)
YesNo
Movement for Socialism (MAS-IPSP)
YesNo
AI Insights:
12 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is severely distorted, with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching 166% (36+33.5+29.5+29.5+28.5+9), indicating massive arbitrage opportunities. Per the rules, Bolivia has 9 departments. In the event of a tie (e.g., 3-3-3 or 2-2-2-2-1), the winner is decided by alphabetical order. 'APB Súmate' (Autonomy...) holds a massive advantage starting with 'A', winning almost all tie-breakers if it secures just a couple of departments (like Cochabamba). MAS, despite polling issues, retains a base and is slightly undervalued at 9c. Popular Alliance (AP) is competitive in the west. Unity Bloc and PDC are significantly overvalued at ~30c; irrational capital is spraying bets across options, causing the total probability to overflow.
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Exotics
This is a moderately exotic market. While standard for Latin American political observers, Bolivia's gubernatorial elections are niche for a global audience. Furthermore, coming off the heels of a historic power shift in the 2025 general elections (where the long-ruling socialist MAS party collapsed and the center-right PDC took power), these 2026 regional elections represent a high-stakes stress test for the new political landscape, adding a layer of novelty and unpredictability.
Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Unity Bloc plunged from 46.5c to 29.5c, Popular Alliance (AP) fell from 46c to 33.5c, and APB Súmate dropped from 43.5c to 28.5c. The reason is a market correction of the previously insane bubble (where sums exceeded 220%); capital is likely exiting overheated Yes positions, or rational market makers are stepping in to buy No, driving Yes prices down.
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Unity Bloc rebounded from 35c to 46c, and MAS jumped from 5.5c to 18c. This was driven by irrational capital chasing 'favorites' as election day approaches, ignoring the mathematical impossibility of the combined probabilities and the high risk of a fragmented vote.
March 12, 2026 - March 15, 2026, All major opposition parties (Unity, Libre, APB, PDC) surged by 20c-30c. This corrected previous undervaluation but overshot significantly, creating the liquidity bubble.
Divergence
There is a massive mathematical divergence. By definition, the sum of probabilities for mutually exclusive events should be 100%, yet the market prices sum to 166%. Furthermore, the market assigns excessively high win rates to Libre (36%) and AP (33.5%). In reality, Bolivian local elections are fragmented, and MAS, while weakened, retains rural control and is unlikely to have only a 9% chance comparatively. The market seems to be betting on a 'unified opposition' scenario, which contradicts the rule that each party's department wins are counted separately.
