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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Chun Jae-soo
YesNo
Park Heong-joon
YesNo
Choi In-ho
YesNo
Suh Byung-soo
YesNo
Cho Kyoung-tae
YesNo
Park Jae-ho
YesNo
Lee Jae-sung
YesNo
Cho Kuk
YesNo
Park Seong-hoon
YesNo
Kim Do-eup
YesNo
Kim Young-choon
YesNo
Hong Soon-heon
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 04:49 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While previous analysis assumed an incumbency advantage for Park Heong-joon, data as of March 2026 has completely overturned this hypothesis. Recent polls by KNN (Mar 3-4) and Busan MBC (Feb 20-21) show Democratic candidate Chun Jae-soo leading Park by 13.5% and 8.7% respectively, both outside the margin of error. Furthermore, the ruling PPP's national approval ratings have collapsed (~20%), and Park faces a serious primary challenge from Joo Jin-woo (not listed in this market), increasing the risk he won't even be the nominee. The market's current pricing (Chun 70c vs Park 27.5c) is correcting previous mispricing; given Chun's double-digit lead and conservative fragmentation, his fair value is likely above 75c.
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Movers
Mar 06, 2026 - Mar 12, 2026, Chun Jae-soo's price surged from 59c to 70c (+11c), driven by the latest KNN poll (Mar 4) showing him leading the incumbent 40.2% to 26.7%, and the emergence of Joo Jin-woo's bid (Mar 8) which threatens Park Heong-joon's nomination path.
Feb 09, 2026 - Feb 11, 2026, Park Heong-joon's price corrected from 50.5c to 42.0c, indicating an early shake in confidence regarding his certainty, although it was not immediately accompanied by a surge in Chun's price at that time.
