All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Iraq
YesNo
Suriname
YesNo
Denmark
YesNo
Poland
YesNo
Jamaica
YesNo
Italy
YesNo
Ukraine
YesNo
DR Congo
YesNo
North Macedonia
YesNo
Slovakia
YesNo
Albania
YesNo
Bolivia
YesNo
Turkey
YesNo
Bosnia and Herzegovina
YesNo
Wales
YesNo
Northern Ireland
YesNo
Czechia
YesNo
Kosovo
YesNo
Sweden
YesNo
Romania
YesNo
Ireland
YesNo
New Caledonia
YesNo
AI Insights:
7 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. **Iraq**: Although corrected to 71.5c, given the fierce competition in AFC Group B (Jordan, Oman), a fair value around 60c is more rational. The current premium still reflects 'fan sentiment.' 2. **Suriname**: The price (33c) is entirely sustained by the theoretical potential of dual-national recruitment. As a Tier-2 CONCACAF side lacking team cohesion, their true qualification probability is overvalued; fair value should return to 25c. 3. **Bolivia**: Benefiting from the expanded CONMEBOL slots and high-altitude home advantage, the 58.5c price is reasonable, with potential upside to 60c. 4. **UEFA Contingent**: Italy and Turkey are fairly priced as favorites; whereas Czechia, Poland, and Ukraine correctly reflect the high variance of single-elimination playoffs with valuations in the 35-40c range.
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Divergence
The main divergence lies with Suriname and Iraq. Mainstream sports media (e.g., ESPN, The Athletic) prediction models typically assign Suriname a very low qualification probability (<15%), whereas the prediction market, influenced by social media hype around 'dual-national recruitment,' prices them at 33%. Similarly, Iraq's market price (71.5%) is significantly higher than statistical probabilities calculated via ELO ratings or SPI indices (~55%).
