Politics|$1.1m Vol|
76 days 6 hrs2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Kim Dong-yeon
YesNo
Choo Mi-ae
YesNo
Han Jun-ho
YesNo
Yoo Seong-min
YesNo
Kim Eun-hye
YesNo
Lee Jun-seok
YesNo
Kim Moon-soo
YesNo
Ahn Cheol-soo
YesNo
Han Dong-hoon
YesNo
Won Hee-ryong
YesNo
Kim Byeong-ju
YesNo
Lee Un-ju
YesNo
Na Kyung-won
YesNo
Yeom Tae-yeong
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is currently exhibiting extreme 'momentum trading' characteristics, overreacting to intra-party factional sentiment while ignoring structural electoral constraints. While Choo Mi-ae, as the vanguard of the 'Pro-Lee' (Lee Jae-myung) faction, indeed holds a dominant advantage in the party member vote (50% weight), incumbent Governor Kim Dong-yeon typically commands broader centrist support in the general public opinion polls (50% weight). The current pricing of 72c vs. 21c implies the market believes Kim will be 'helpless' in the primary, which contradicts the organizational mobilization and name recognition typically enjoyed by incumbents. Fair value suggests that while Choo is the clear favorite, 72c is overbought, and Kim at 21c is panic-oversold; the spread should not be this extreme.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Choo Mi-ae's price surged from 58.6c to 72.3c, while Kim Dong-yeon plummeted from 33.5c to 21.0c. The reason is a panic-driven collapse in market sentiment; traders completely abandoned expectations for an incumbent rebound and went all-in on the hardline faction (Pro-Lee) crushing the primary via their organizational vote bank, leading to one-sided flows into Choo.
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Choo Mi-ae's price corrected downwards from a high of 64.4c to 58.6c, while Kim Dong-yeon rebounded from 29.5c to 33.5c. The reason was a rational attempt at mean reversion after the initial panic, as traders reassessed the incumbent's structural advantage in public polls.
March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, Choo Mi-ae's price surged from 56.4c to 64.4c, driven by expectations of vote consolidation following her official bid declaration, which triggered an oversold condition for Kim.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis and historical data suggest that under a '50% party member + 50% public poll' rule, an incumbent governor rarely loses a primary by a margin exceeding 50 percentage points due to high name recognition and administrative resources. However, the prediction market's current pricing (72% vs 21%) reflects a 'landslide' purge scenario, implying participants believe public polling will be irrelevant or that intra-party exclusionary sentiment has reached an extreme, conflicting with traditional electoral logic.
