Czech Extraliga: Winner - AI Found +40.5¢ Mispricing

Sports|$14.3k Vol|

33 days 19 hrs

Czech Extraliga: Winner - AI Found +40.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.02 22:49

Top Undervalued

+40.5¢

HC Ocelári Třinec(No)

+28.5¢

HC Dynamo Pardubice(No)

+6¢

HC Sparta Praha(No)

Czech Extraliga: Winner AI analysis: • +40.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the 2025-26 Czech Extraliga regular season standings, HC Dynamo Pardubice finished first wi...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$11.3k Vol|

269 days 15 hrs

Spain snap election called in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current market price is stable around 28.5c. Although Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez faces continuous ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Spain is the Eurozone's fourth-largest economy. Political uncertainty typically directly hits Spanish equities (e.g., iShares MSCI Spain ETF - EWP) and major banking stocks (BBVA, Santander). A snap election announcement usually signals a governance crisis, leading to increased short-term volatility. The impact on the Euro itself is generally minor unless the crisis triggers broader concerns about EU stability.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze what the extremely low volume ($9.0) implies. Combine this with recent news on the stability of the Spanish PSOE-Sumar coalition government to reassess the fair odds range and liquidity risks.

Politics|$55.2k Vol|

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Matt Pinnell(Yes)

Stephanie Bice(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With Markwayne Mullin nominated as DHS Secretary, Kevin Hern has firmly established himself as the o...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a high rule trap risk. The rules state 'If no primary takes place... resolve to Other'. In Oklahoma, if an incumbent (like Markwayne Mullin) runs unopposed, the primary is often cancelled/not held, and the candidate is deemed elected. Under a strict literal reading, this scenario would cause bets on Mullin to lose and 'Other' to win, despite him retaining the seat.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book depth on the Polymarket page for this Oklahoma Senate Primary event to analyze if liquidity supports large trades, and update the fair value assessment of candidates like Markwayne Mullin based on recent Republican party dynamics.

Tech|$11.2k Vol|

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?

Top Undervalued

Shadowrocket(No)

DualShot Recorder(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest US App Store rankings, DualShot Recorder is currently the #1 Top Paid App, follo...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Predicting the App Store ranking on a specific date is a relatively niche data prediction market. While less common than elections or sports, it is not an absurd question and appeals to data analysts or developers.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and current objective data. DualShot Recorder is currently ranked #1 on the App Store's Top Paid list [10], yet its Yes price in the prediction market is only 25c, which severely underestimates its probability of maintaining the top spot in 3 days. This divergence is likely due to low market liquidity or participants not closely monitoring the latest chart updates.

How frequently does the Apple App Store's 'Top Paid Apps' chart update, and is there any risk of a data source discrepancy between the web link and the App at exactly 12:00 PM ET on April 7?

Elections|$20.2k Vol|

South Dakota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Mike Rounds(Yes)

Justin McNeal(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds enjoys strong party support, a fundraising advantage, and faces almost...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, Mike Rounds' price climbed from 81.5c to 91c, a move of over 10c, reflecting further consolidation of market confidence in his easy primary victory. March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, no option experienced price movements exceeding 10 cents, indicating a market consolidation phase. Mike Rounds' price recovered slightly from a low of 81c to 85.5c, reflecting a slow restoration of bullish confidence without high volatility.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning - Trivia & Controversy Summary] Search for and analyze the latest political dynamics surrounding Kristi Noem in 2026, specifically the impact of the 'Cricket' dog controversy and her exclusion from the Trump VP shortlist on her intra-party support. Contrast this with local SD GOP base satisfaction regarding incumbent Mike Rounds to assess if Noem's political capital is too depleted to launch a viable primary challenge (skewing the market towards Rounds or 'Other').

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, considering the low liquidity of ~$12k, analyze the current bid-ask spread between Mike Rounds and Kristi Noem. Specifically assess if price distortion exists due to thin liquidity, and based on SD GOP internal news, determine if the current odds reasonably reflect Noem's actual willingness to challenge incumbent Senator Rounds.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification - Key Timeline Check] Search the South Dakota Secretary of State's official 2026 election schedule to confirm the candidate filing deadline for the Senate primary (typically late March). Verify if Mike Rounds has officially filed for re-election and if Kristi Noem has made any substantive filing moves during her governorship, to rule out the capital lock-up risk of her not running at all.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning - Trivia & Controversy Summary] Search for and analyze the latest political dynamics surrounding Kristi Noem in 2026, specifically the impact of the 'Cricket' dog controversy and her exclusion from the Trump VP shortlist on her intra-party support. Contrast this with local SD GOP base satisfaction regarding incumbent Mike Rounds to assess if Noem's political capital is too depleted to launch a viable primary challenge (skewing the market towards Rounds or 'Other').

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, considering the low liquidity of ~$12k, analyze the current bid-ask spread between Mike Rounds and Kristi Noem. Specifically assess if price distortion exists due to thin liquidity, and based on SD GOP internal news, determine if the current odds reasonably reflect Noem's actual willingness to challenge incumbent Senator Rounds.

Elections|$23.3k Vol|

269 days 15 hrs

Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite political pressure and continued executive threats, with only about 9 months left until Dece...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant 'timeline trap' risk. While the definition of 'officially rescinded' is clear, the U.S. federal denaturalization process is notoriously lengthy, often taking years. Even if a lawsuit were filed immediately in Feb 2026, finalizing the legal process (including discovery, trial, and inevitable appeals) by the end of 2026 is highly improbable. Bettors may overestimate the speed at which political threats translate into final legal outcomes.

This is a specific political prop bet. While grounded in the current context (Mayor Mamdani facing GOP attacks), the scenario of 'stripping citizenship from a sitting elected official' is an extremely rare legal and political event, placing it outside the realm of standard election forecasting but within plausible political controversy.

If this event resolves to 'Yes', it would signal a significant deterioration in the U.S. political climate, rule of law, or a rise in authoritarianism, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis and civil unrest (especially in NYC). This 'systemic shock' would likely drive capital toward censorship-resistant assets (like Bitcoin) or safe havens (Gold), while potentially causing a negative sentiment shock to equities (S&P 500), particularly affecting NYC-based financial stability.

While media and political commentators may highlight the administration's intent to denaturalize individuals, legal experts widely consider the process to be extremely lengthy and difficult. The ~9% probability priced by the prediction market likely overestimates the government's ability to bypass complex judicial procedures in a short time, reflecting market participants' reactions to political rhetoric rather than legal reality.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest news regarding Zohran Mamdani (specifically regarding his citizenship or legal status), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user comments, and assess whether the current 'Yes' price reflects genuine legal risk or merely panic/hate betting against a political figure.

[Awareness & Verification] Legal/Reality Barriers: Search for specific U.S. legal statutes regarding denaturalization (e.g., fraud, concealment of material facts, or membership in subversive groups) and analyze Mamdani's public background to determine if there is any factual basis that could trigger these high legal bars, and assess the feasibility of completing such a judicial process before the end of 2026.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

HC Ocelári Třinec

YesNo

50.5¢

49.5¢

10¢

90¢

0¢

+40.5¢

HC Dynamo Pardubice

YesNo

53.5¢

46.5¢

25¢

75¢

0¢

+28.5¢

Expand to view all 4 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

Severe divergence exists. The prediction market assigns a nearly 50% chance of winning to every single team, leading to a cumulative implied probability of around 680%. This violates basic axioms of probability for mutually exclusive events (which must sum to 100%). It indicates that the current market pricing is completely detached from reality; no mainstream sports analysis would suggest that all 14 teams simultaneously have a coin-flip chance of winning the championship.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$11.3k Vol|

269 days 15 hrs

Spain snap election called in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current market price is stable around 28.5c. Although Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez faces continuous ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Spain is the Eurozone's fourth-largest economy. Political uncertainty typically directly hits Spanish equities (e.g., iShares MSCI Spain ETF - EWP) and major banking stocks (BBVA, Santander). A snap election announcement usually signals a governance crisis, leading to increased short-term volatility. The impact on the Euro itself is generally minor unless the crisis triggers broader concerns about EU stability.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze what the extremely low volume ($9.0) implies. Combine this with recent news on the stability of the Spanish PSOE-Sumar coalition government to reassess the fair odds range and liquidity risks.

Politics|$55.2k Vol|

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Matt Pinnell(Yes)

Stephanie Bice(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With Markwayne Mullin nominated as DHS Secretary, Kevin Hern has firmly established himself as the o...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a high rule trap risk. The rules state 'If no primary takes place... resolve to Other'. In Oklahoma, if an incumbent (like Markwayne Mullin) runs unopposed, the primary is often cancelled/not held, and the candidate is deemed elected. Under a strict literal reading, this scenario would cause bets on Mullin to lose and 'Other' to win, despite him retaining the seat.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book depth on the Polymarket page for this Oklahoma Senate Primary event to analyze if liquidity supports large trades, and update the fair value assessment of candidates like Markwayne Mullin based on recent Republican party dynamics.

Tech|$11.2k Vol|

#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7?

Top Undervalued

Shadowrocket(No)

DualShot Recorder(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest US App Store rankings, DualShot Recorder is currently the #1 Top Paid App, follo...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Predicting the App Store ranking on a specific date is a relatively niche data prediction market. While less common than elections or sports, it is not an absurd question and appeals to data analysts or developers.

There is a significant divergence between market pricing and current objective data. DualShot Recorder is currently ranked #1 on the App Store's Top Paid list [10], yet its Yes price in the prediction market is only 25c, which severely underestimates its probability of maintaining the top spot in 3 days. This divergence is likely due to low market liquidity or participants not closely monitoring the latest chart updates.

How frequently does the Apple App Store's 'Top Paid Apps' chart update, and is there any risk of a data source discrepancy between the web link and the App at exactly 12:00 PM ET on April 7?

Elections|$20.2k Vol|

South Dakota Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Mike Rounds(Yes)

Justin McNeal(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Incumbent Senator Mike Rounds enjoys strong party support, a fundraising advantage, and faces almost...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

March 28, 2026 - March 31, 2026, Mike Rounds' price climbed from 81.5c to 91c, a move of over 10c, reflecting further consolidation of market confidence in his easy primary victory. March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, no option experienced price movements exceeding 10 cents, indicating a market consolidation phase. Mike Rounds' price recovered slightly from a low of 81c to 85.5c, reflecting a slow restoration of bullish confidence without high volatility.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning - Trivia & Controversy Summary] Search for and analyze the latest political dynamics surrounding Kristi Noem in 2026, specifically the impact of the 'Cricket' dog controversy and her exclusion from the Trump VP shortlist on her intra-party support. Contrast this with local SD GOP base satisfaction regarding incumbent Mike Rounds to assess if Noem's political capital is too depleted to launch a viable primary challenge (skewing the market towards Rounds or 'Other').

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, considering the low liquidity of ~$12k, analyze the current bid-ask spread between Mike Rounds and Kristi Noem. Specifically assess if price distortion exists due to thin liquidity, and based on SD GOP internal news, determine if the current odds reasonably reflect Noem's actual willingness to challenge incumbent Senator Rounds.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification - Key Timeline Check] Search the South Dakota Secretary of State's official 2026 election schedule to confirm the candidate filing deadline for the Senate primary (typically late March). Verify if Mike Rounds has officially filed for re-election and if Kristi Noem has made any substantive filing moves during her governorship, to rule out the capital lock-up risk of her not running at all.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning - Trivia & Controversy Summary] Search for and analyze the latest political dynamics surrounding Kristi Noem in 2026, specifically the impact of the 'Cricket' dog controversy and her exclusion from the Trump VP shortlist on her intra-party support. Contrast this with local SD GOP base satisfaction regarding incumbent Mike Rounds to assess if Noem's political capital is too depleted to launch a viable primary challenge (skewing the market towards Rounds or 'Other').

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page and, considering the low liquidity of ~$12k, analyze the current bid-ask spread between Mike Rounds and Kristi Noem. Specifically assess if price distortion exists due to thin liquidity, and based on SD GOP internal news, determine if the current odds reasonably reflect Noem's actual willingness to challenge incumbent Senator Rounds.

Elections|$23.3k Vol|

269 days 15 hrs

Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite political pressure and continued executive threats, with only about 9 months left until Dece...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant 'timeline trap' risk. While the definition of 'officially rescinded' is clear, the U.S. federal denaturalization process is notoriously lengthy, often taking years. Even if a lawsuit were filed immediately in Feb 2026, finalizing the legal process (including discovery, trial, and inevitable appeals) by the end of 2026 is highly improbable. Bettors may overestimate the speed at which political threats translate into final legal outcomes.

This is a specific political prop bet. While grounded in the current context (Mayor Mamdani facing GOP attacks), the scenario of 'stripping citizenship from a sitting elected official' is an extremely rare legal and political event, placing it outside the realm of standard election forecasting but within plausible political controversy.

If this event resolves to 'Yes', it would signal a significant deterioration in the U.S. political climate, rule of law, or a rise in authoritarianism, potentially triggering a constitutional crisis and civil unrest (especially in NYC). This 'systemic shock' would likely drive capital toward censorship-resistant assets (like Bitcoin) or safe havens (Gold), while potentially causing a negative sentiment shock to equities (S&P 500), particularly affecting NYC-based financial stability.

While media and political commentators may highlight the administration's intent to denaturalize individuals, legal experts widely consider the process to be extremely lengthy and difficult. The ~9% probability priced by the prediction market likely overestimates the government's ability to bypass complex judicial procedures in a short time, reflecting market participants' reactions to political rhetoric rather than legal reality.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest news regarding Zohran Mamdani (specifically regarding his citizenship or legal status), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user comments, and assess whether the current 'Yes' price reflects genuine legal risk or merely panic/hate betting against a political figure.

[Awareness & Verification] Legal/Reality Barriers: Search for specific U.S. legal statutes regarding denaturalization (e.g., fraud, concealment of material facts, or membership in subversive groups) and analyze Mamdani's public background to determine if there is any factual basis that could trigger these high legal bars, and assess the feasibility of completing such a judicial process before the end of 2026.

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