All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Kolkata Knight Riders
YesNo
Gujarat Titans
YesNo
Royal Challengers Bengaluru
YesNo
Sunrisers Hyderabad
YesNo
Delhi Capitals
YesNo
Chennai Super Kings
YesNo
Mumbai Indians
YesNo
Punjab Kings
YesNo
Lucknow Super Giants
YesNo
Rajasthan Royals
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 17:31 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has significantly corrected from the previous 'long trap' (~130% total implied probability) to a more efficient ~104%, with most 'Yes' prices collapsing. The standout value opportunity is Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR); while the market is pricing in Cameron Green's fitness risks by pushing them down to 7.5c, experts consistently rate them as a top-2 balanced squad, making them deeply undervalued (FV 13c). Mumbai Indians (MI) remain the consensus strongest team, but at 21.5c, they are priced for perfection with limited upside. Chennai Super Kings (CSK) hold a 'sentiment premium' at 12.5c driven by the 'Dhoni's Last Dance' narrative, ignoring the structural volatility introduced by the massive Samson-for-Jadeja trade.
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Divergence
A significant divergence exists regarding Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR). Polymarket prices them at 7.5c (bottom tier, above only RR and LSG), implying very low winning probability. However, mainstream sports analysis and squad ratings consistently rank KKR alongside MI as one of the 'two most balanced squads,' citing the acquisition of Cameron Green as a major boost. The market price reflects extreme pessimism, likely overreacting to injury rumors, and starkly contrasts with expert consensus positioning them as a top-4 lock.
