2026 Pro Football Draft: Team to draft Arvell Reese
Sports|$11.6k Vol|
time1 days 17 hrs

2026 Pro Football Draft: Team to draft Arvell Reese - AI Found +97¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.23 17:02
Top Undervalued
+97¢
New York Giants(No)
+2.9¢
Minnesota Vikings(Yes)
+2.9¢
Green Bay Packers(Yes)

2026 Pro Football Draft: Team to draft Arvell Reese AI analysis: • +97¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market prices for Arvell Reese's draft destination remain highly abnormal and flat, with...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 24?
Weather|$19.3k Vol|
time5 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 24?

Top Undervalued
+8¢
29°C(Yes)
+7.5¢
28°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The latest weather data (e.g., Wunderground) forecasts a high of around 85°F (approx. 29.4°C) for Sa...
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Exotics
Forecasting the daily high temperature for a specific city falls under weather derivatives. While somewhat trivial and niche for the general public, it is relatively common in prediction markets and not highly bizarre.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from 16.5c to 33c, and the 29°C option rose from 31.5c to 43c, while the 30°C option plummeted from 25c to 7.5c. This was driven by updated weather forecasts closer to the resolution date that locked the expected high temperature firmly around 29°C and slightly cooler levels, effectively eliminating the likelihood of reaching 30°C.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos airport in late April, what is the actual frequency of temperatures hitting 30°C or higher?
Highest temperature in Toronto on April 24?
Weather|$48.2k Vol|
time5 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Toronto on April 24?

Top Undervalued
+5¢
11°C(Yes)
+3.5¢
10°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the settlement day (April 24) has arrived, the latest real-time meteorological data indicates tha...
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Movers
Between April 24, 2026, 02:48 and 04:58, the price of the 10°C option surged from 29c to 69c. This was driven by early actual temperature readings and short-term nowcasts on the settlement day strongly pointing to 10°C as the daily high, prompting rapid market consensus. Over the previous 3 days, as weather forecast models gradually converged, the prices of all options remained stable, with no sudden price movements exceeding 10 cents observed.
AI Analysis
How exactly does Wunderground record and report the daily high temperature for Toronto Pearson Airport (CYYZ), and at what specific time after April 24 is the data considered 'finalized' to trigger market resolution?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 24?
Weather|$22.4k Vol|
time5 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on April 24?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
22°C(Yes)
+3¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is April 24, 2026, the resolution date. According to the market snapshot prices, the 24°C and ...
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Rule Risk
The rules specify the SAEZ airport station rather than downtown Buenos Aires, which often experience noticeable temperature differences. Additionally, resolution relies strictly on Wunderground's rounded integer data; any temporary missing data or discrepancies with official meteorological sources on this specific platform could introduce unexpected risks.
Movers
From April 22, 2026, to April 24, 2026, the price of the 24°C option rose from 21.5c to 36.5c, a movement of over 10c, as the resolution day approached and weather forecasts locked in near 24°C. Simultaneously, the 22°C option decreased from a peak of 28c down to 15.5c, indicating that the market views a maximum temperature of only 22°C as less likely.
AI Analysis
Check the Wunderground SAEZ station data source to confirm exactly when the daily highest temperature data (rounded to whole degrees Celsius) for Buenos Aires on April 24 is finalized and updated.
Highest temperature in Paris on April 24?
Weather|$48.4k Vol|
time5 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on April 24?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
22°C(Yes)
+6.5¢
21°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Paris Le Bourget Airport on April...
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Exotics
Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a standard derivative on prediction markets, yet betting on the exact temperature of a single day remains a somewhat niche and novelty topic for the general public.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 24, 2026: The price of the 23°C option surged from 14c to 39.5c, and the 22°C option climbed from 23.5c to 39c, while the 21°C option dropped significantly from 32c down to 12c. This shift occurred because as the target date approaches, weather forecasts have become much more precise, firmly predicting the daily high to land in the 22°C-23°C range, causing market probabilities to strongly consolidate around these two brackets [2, 4].
AI Analysis
How exactly is the highest temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport determined on Wunderground, and what happens if the data is delayed?
Highest temperature in Seattle on April 24?
Weather|$23.1k Vol|
time5 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Seattle on April 24?

Top Undervalued
+48¢
64-65°F(Yes)
+21.5¢
60-61°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Weather Underground (Wunderground) forecast for the KSEA station, the high t...
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Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026: The price of the '64-65°F' option dropped sharply from 35c down to 11.5c. This was driven by a downward revision in short-term meteorological forecast models, causing capital to rotate into cooler temperature buckets. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026: Correspondingly, the '62-63°F' option rallied from 35.5c up to a peak of 47.5c, establishing itself as the new favorite bracket.
Divergence
Current market pricing treats '62-63°F' as the most likely outcome (at 38.5c), while '64-65°F' trails at 16.5c. However, the latest direct Wunderground forecast explicitly projects a high of 64°F for Friday. This indicates that market participants are lagging behind the most recent update from the specific resolution source (Wunderground KSEA), resulting in a significant undervaluation of the 64-65°F bracket.
AI Analysis
Based on historical weather data for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, what is the frequency of the highest temperature falling into each of these specific brackets (e.g., 58-59°F, 60-61°F) on April 24 over the past decade?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
New York Giants
YesNo
99.95¢
0.05¢
3¢
97¢
0¢
+97¢
Minnesota Vikings
YesNo
0.05¢
99.95¢
3¢
97¢
+2.9¢
0¢

Expand to view all 32 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the 'yes' price for the New York Jets dropped from 66.5c to 26c, driven by extremely low liquidity where small trades cause massive swings. April 23, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the 'yes' price for the Cincinnati Bengals crashed from 47.5c to 2.1c, again due to anomalous trade orders in an illiquid market. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, the 'yes' price for the New Orleans Saints surged from 4.5c to 47.5c, showing random price jumps between extreme bounds without fundamental support. April 22, 2026 - April 23, 2026, teams like the Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams, and New England Patriots all experienced temporary flash crashes of around 20c followed by rapid rebounds, typical of low-liquidity markets lacking market makers.
Divergence
The sum of implied probabilities far exceeds 100%, indicating a total breakdown in the market's pricing mechanism, severely diverging from the basic logic of mainstream draft projections where total probabilities should sum to ~100%. Current market prices reflect technical distortions due to low liquidity rather than actual draft expectations.

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