Politics|$887.5k Vol|
76 days 6 hrs2026 South Korean Local Elections: Party Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Democratic Party of Korea (DP)
YesNo
Progressive Party (PP)
YesNo
People Power Party (PPP)
YesNo
Reform Party (RP)
YesNo
Rebuilding Korea Party (RKP)
YesNo
AI Insights:
11 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The fair value for DP (Democratic Party) remains at 97 cents, with the core thesis unchanged. First, the 'Tie-breaker' rule acts as a massive moat for the DP—since 'D' comes before 'P' alphabetically, the market resolves in favor of the DP in the event of an equal number of wins across the 17 districts. This forces the PPP to achieve an 'absolute' victory in seat count to win the market, which is a high hurdle. Second, given the 2026 political backdrop (the implied post-impeachment climate), local elections structurally favor the opposition. Although DP's price has fluctuated between 94c and 96c over the last two days, this reflects short-term speculative flow rather than a shift in fundamentals. With only 76 days remaining and no major catalyst for a PPP turnaround, DP's victory is near-locked.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes' on all options (Buy the bucket)
Plan Description:
The sum of 'Yes' prices for all options is approximately 99.30c (95.65 + 3.15 + 0.2 + 0.15 + 0.15). This means the cost of buying the entire bucket is below the guaranteed payout of 100c. Since this covers all listed major parties, and the rules imply a closed system for resolution (barring a black swan where an unlisted party wins the most seats, which is extremely unlikely in Korea's political duopoly), this is a near risk-free arbitrage opportunity. While the annualized yield (~3.35%) is modest, it is highly stable.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 3.35%
