Current market prices (~41%) are highly anomalous and grossly overestimate the risk, likely due to e...

The rules contain subtle traps. First, it explicitly excludes proxy attacks (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis), counting only actions explicitly claimed by Iranian forces or confirmed to originate from Iranian territory. In geopolitical reality, attribution is often murky (e.g., 'Axis of Resistance' ambiguity), increasing resolution dispute risk. Second, the requirement for 'physical damage' (excluding intercepted strikes) can be difficult to verify amidst the fog of war and propaganda.

This is a niche market rooted in real geopolitical tensions. While not absurd (like an alien invasion), predicting a strike on a specific infrastructure target (e.g., a specific refinery or nuclear facility) falls into the realm of highly specific military/intelligence analysis, making it more 'exotic' than a general 'will war happen' question.

If Iran directly strikes any key energy infrastructure on the list (e.g., Abqaiq or Kharg Island), Crude Oil prices would face an extreme upside shock (Score 5) as it directly threatens global supply. Gold would surge as a safe haven. Equities (S&P 500) would likely drop due to panic and spiking energy costs. This event is a classic geopolitical black swan with very high hedging value.

Extreme divergence. The prediction market implies a ~40% probability of a direct Iranian strike on critical Gulf infrastructure within 30 days, which is pricing akin to the outbreak of total war. However, mainstream defense analysis and geopolitical consensus suggest that while tensions are high, a direct kinetic war (causing physical damage) remains a low-probability tail risk, not the base case.

According to the latest meteorological forecasts (including Google Weather and Met Office), the high...

From March 24 to March 26, 2026, the price of the 17°C option climbed steadily from 18c to 36.5c, and the 18°C option also saw significant volatility (peaking at 31c from 17.5c). This was driven by increasing certainty in meteorological models projecting temperatures around 17°C as the date approaches. From March 24 to March 26, 2026, extreme temperature options (such as 21°C or higher, 12°C, 13°C, 14°C, 15°C) experienced sharp declines (>10c). Notably, '21°C or higher' plunged from 25.5c to around 3c, as early weather uncertainty was eliminated, leaving extreme temperature scenarios highly unlikely.

Recent price trends indicate a strong market shift towards extreme highs. The 80°F+ option has surge...

March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of '80°F or higher' surged from 14.5c to a peak of 39.5c (currently ~35c) due to short-term weather models significantly upgrading Saturday's high temperature forecast driven by a stronger-than-expected high-pressure ridge. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of '74-75°F' plummeted from 27.5c to 10c as the previously forecasted mild warmup was replaced by a more aggressive heat projection, drastically reducing the probability of hitting this lower bucket.

Based on the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on March 28 is e...

This is a prediction market for weather data at a specific location and date. While weather forecasting is common, betting on it falls under 'Novelty Markets,' less mainstream than elections or sports. However, since weather derivatives exist in finance, its exotic nature is moderate.

March 24 - March 26, 2026: The prices of extreme options '11°C or below' and '21°C or higher' plummeted from 25.5c to under 6c. This happened because updated weather forecasts ruled out extreme temperature deviations as the target date approached. March 24 - March 26, 2026: The prices for '17°C' and '18°C' surged from roughly 17c to over 32c, as the latest meteorological data (e.g., AccuWeather forecasting 64°F/17.8°C) locked them in as the most likely outcomes.

The latest weather forecasts (e.g., Wunderground, AccuWeather, Time and Date) show a significant war...

Between 2026-03-27 03:40 and 2026-03-27 17:45, the price of the 20°C option surged from 11c to 36.5c, and the 21°C option jumped from 3.5c to 28.2c, while the 18°C option plummeted from 36.5c to 7.5c. This was driven by meteorological models significantly upgrading the high-temperature forecast for Shanghai on March 28. Between 2026-03-26 01:40 and 2026-03-26 07:05, the price of the 18°C option surged from 27.5c to 40.5c, driven by updated meteorological models converging tightly around this temperature. Between 2026-03-25 15:55 and 2026-03-26 02:45, the price of the 19°C option plunged from 29.5c to 15.5c, as some short-term forecasts slightly lowered the expected high, causing capital to rebalance across adjacent temperature ranges.