May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of the 60-61°F option surged from 21c to 40.5c, and 58-59°F surged from 22c to 37.5c, while 64-65°F plummeted from 19.5c to 2.3c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecasts have converged, stabilizing the expected high around 59-60°F and ruling out higher temperature possibilities.

While weather prediction is a known niche in prediction markets, guessing the exact high temperature of a specific city on a random day is quite specific and not a mainstream topic of interest for the general public.

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather and Google Weather) generally predict the high temperature for Buenos Aires (and the Ezeiza airport) on May 7 to be around 17°C (62°F). However, the prediction market heavily favors 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C (combining for over 60% implied probability). This disconnect is likely driven by market participants betting on a delayed arrival of a cold front, allowing pre-frontal warmth to dictate the daily high, or factoring in historical micro-climate positive biases at the specific Wunderground SAEZ station.

Predicting the exact high temperature for a specific city on a given day is not a mainstream everyday discussion, but it is a relatively common niche data-prediction market on such platforms.

May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 18°C surged from 27c to 64c as weather forecast data became more certain that the highest temperature would fall in the 18°C range approaching the settlement date. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 17°C experienced drastic volatility, rising from 22.5c to a peak of 33.5c before plummeting to 10.5c, due to updated weather forecasts eliminating the likelihood of 17°C as time progressed. May 5, 2026 - May 6, 2026, the price of 19°C rose from 26.5c to a high of 32.5c before plunging to 13.5c, also driven by declining probabilities following meteorological updates near settlement.