All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Ricky Castillo
YesNo
Zach Bauchou
YesNo
Brian Campbell
YesNo
Luke Clanton
YesNo
Steven Fisk
YesNo
Peter Malnati
YesNo
Ben Griffin
YesNo
Keegan Bradley
YesNo
Akshay Bhatia
YesNo
Patrick Cantlay
YesNo
Sung-Jae Im
YesNo
Matt Fitzpatrick
YesNo
Viktor Hovland
YesNo
Xander Schauffele
YesNo
Beau Hossler
YesNo
David Lipsky
YesNo
Matthieu Pavon
YesNo
Brooks Koepka
YesNo
Marcelo Rozo
YesNo
Davis Chatfield
YesNo
Patrick Fishburn
YesNo
Lee Hodges
YesNo
Brice Garnett
YesNo
William Mouw
YesNo
Eric Cole
YesNo
Jeremy Paul
YesNo
Matthias Schmid
YesNo
Keith Mitchell
YesNo
Jacob Bridgeman
YesNo
Lucas Glover
YesNo
Billy Horschel
YesNo
Emiliano Grillo
YesNo
Takumi Kanaya
YesNo
Tony Finau
YesNo
Nick Dunlap
YesNo
Mackenzie Hughes
YesNo
Michael Kim
YesNo
Johnny Keefer
YesNo
Isaiah Salinda
YesNo
Chandler Blanchet
YesNo
Henry Lebioda
YesNo
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
YesNo
Joe Highsmith
YesNo
Rico Hoey
YesNo
David Ford
YesNo
Adam Hadwin
YesNo
Michael Brennan
YesNo
Kristoffer Reitan
YesNo
Austin Eckroat
YesNo
Pontus Nyholm
YesNo
Rasmus Hojgaard
YesNo
John Parry
YesNo
Ze-Cheng Dou
YesNo
Rafael Campos
YesNo
Max Greyserman
YesNo
Corey Conners
YesNo
Zac Blair
YesNo
Cam Davis
YesNo
Kensei Hirata
YesNo
Jeffrey Kang
YesNo
Seong-Hyeon Kim
YesNo
Patton Kizzire
YesNo
Charley Hoffman
YesNo
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
YesNo
Chad Ramey
YesNo
Mark Hubbard
YesNo
A.J. Ewart
YesNo
Taylor Pendrith
YesNo
Aaron Rai
YesNo
Daniel Brown
YesNo
Nicolai Hojgaard
YesNo
Ryo Hisatsune
YesNo
Stephan Jaeger
YesNo
Max McGreevy
YesNo
Bud Cauley
YesNo
Wyndham Clark
YesNo
Marco Penge
YesNo
Davis Riley
YesNo
Max Homa
YesNo
Doug Ghim
YesNo
Kevin Roy
YesNo
Greg Koch
YesNo
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
YesNo
Patrick Rodgers
YesNo
Chandler Phillips
YesNo
Adam Schenk
YesNo
Blades Brown
YesNo
Garrick Higgo
YesNo
Taylor Moore
YesNo
Mac Meissner
YesNo
Matt Kuchar
YesNo
Pierceson Coody
YesNo
Matt McCarty
YesNo
Andrew Novak
YesNo
Adrien Saddier
YesNo
Robert MacIntyre
YesNo
Tom Kim
YesNo
Thorbjorn Olesen
YesNo
Gordon Sargent
YesNo
Paul Peterson
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 21:21 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on models from DataGolf and major sportsbooks (e.g., DraftKings), the Top 10 probability for elite players like Xander Schauffele typically ranges between 40-50%, making the current market price (48.5c) reasonable. However, for non-elite or lower-ranked players like Brian Campbell and Ricky Castillo, the true probability of a Top 10 finish is extremely low (typically <5%). The current prediction market pricing of ~50c for these players reflects severe illiquidity and uncorrected default seeding. The fair value for these options should be significantly downgraded to single digits.
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Divergence
There is a massive consensus divergence. Mainstream sports analysis (ESPN, CBS Sports, PGA Tour Stats) and statistical models imply that, barring a few elite stars, the probability of an average player finishing in the Top 10 is generally below 20%, and often below 5%. However, on Polymarket, a vast number of average players have 'Yes' prices stuck at 50c (implying 50% probability). This pricing is completely disconnected from the reality of player skill distribution, caused entirely by a lack of active traders correcting the initial seed prices.
