All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
A.J. Ewart
YesNo
Max McGreevy
YesNo
Zach Bauchou
YesNo
Zac Blair
YesNo
Peter Malnati
YesNo
Thorbjorn Olesen
YesNo
Chandler Blanchet
YesNo
Max Homa
YesNo
Tony Finau
YesNo
Patrick Cantlay
YesNo
Wyndham Clark
YesNo
Akshay Bhatia
YesNo
Xander Schauffele
YesNo
Viktor Hovland
YesNo
Matt Fitzpatrick
YesNo
Ryo Hisatsune
YesNo
Adam Hadwin
YesNo
Kensei Hirata
YesNo
Ben Griffin
YesNo
Austin Eckroat
YesNo
Brice Garnett
YesNo
Garrick Higgo
YesNo
Matthias Schmid
YesNo
Gordon Sargent
YesNo
Pierceson Coody
YesNo
Patrick Fishburn
YesNo
Chad Ramey
YesNo
Ze-Cheng Dou
YesNo
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
YesNo
Paul Peterson
YesNo
Charley Hoffman
YesNo
Stephan Jaeger
YesNo
Jeffrey Kang
YesNo
Adrien Saddier
YesNo
Seong-Hyeon Kim
YesNo
Lucas Glover
YesNo
Matthieu Pavon
YesNo
Michael Kim
YesNo
Johnny Keefer
YesNo
Emiliano Grillo
YesNo
Keith Mitchell
YesNo
Blades Brown
YesNo
Kevin Roy
YesNo
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
YesNo
Rasmus Hojgaard
YesNo
David Ford
YesNo
Michael Brennan
YesNo
William Mouw
YesNo
Nicolai Hojgaard
YesNo
Corey Conners
YesNo
Henry Lebioda
YesNo
Luke Clanton
YesNo
Davis Riley
YesNo
Tom Kim
YesNo
Davis Chatfield
YesNo
Sung-Jae Im
YesNo
Lee Hodges
YesNo
Doug Ghim
YesNo
Taylor Pendrith
YesNo
Marco Penge
YesNo
Greg Koch
YesNo
Mark Hubbard
YesNo
Patton Kizzire
YesNo
Cam Davis
YesNo
Mackenzie Hughes
YesNo
Brian Campbell
YesNo
Rico Hoey
YesNo
Chandler Phillips
YesNo
Aaron Rai
YesNo
Takumi Kanaya
YesNo
Patrick Rodgers
YesNo
Nick Dunlap
YesNo
Matt McCarty
YesNo
Isaiah Salinda
YesNo
Pontus Nyholm
YesNo
Joe Highsmith
YesNo
Brooks Koepka
YesNo
Beau Hossler
YesNo
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
YesNo
Daniel Brown
YesNo
Steven Fisk
YesNo
Jeremy Paul
YesNo
Ricky Castillo
YesNo
Max Greyserman
YesNo
Billy Horschel
YesNo
Matt Kuchar
YesNo
Adam Schenk
YesNo
David Lipsky
YesNo
Rafael Campos
YesNo
Robert MacIntyre
YesNo
Kristoffer Reitan
YesNo
Taylor Moore
YesNo
Bud Cauley
YesNo
Jacob Bridgeman
YesNo
Andrew Novak
YesNo
Marcelo Rozo
YesNo
John Parry
YesNo
Keegan Bradley
YesNo
Mac Meissner
YesNo
Eric Cole
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market currently exhibits severe pricing inefficiency. In a 'Top 5' market, the sum of probabilities should theoretically approximate 500% (5.00). However, dozens of players have 'Yes' prices stuck at 50 cents (0.50), causing the sum of implied probabilities to far exceed 3000%, which is mathematically impossible. Based on odds from DraftKings and BetMGM, tournament favorite Xander Schauffele (+1100 to win) has a true Top 5 probability of around 30%. Mid-to-lower tier players like Thorbjorn Olesen or Zac Blair typically have true probabilities below 5%-8%. Any price near 50 cents for non-elite players is grossly overvalued.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., DraftKings) list Xander Schauffele as a heavy favorite (Top 5 odds approx +250) and players like A.J. Ewart as extreme longshots (Top 5 odds >+2000). However, the prediction market's current pricing implies both tiers of players have a ~50% chance of finishing Top 5, which is completely disconnected from real-world professional odds.
