All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Henry Lebioda
YesNo
Daniel Brown
YesNo
Seong-Hyeon Kim
YesNo
Jacob Bridgeman
YesNo
Akshay Bhatia
YesNo
Xander Schauffele
YesNo
Matt Fitzpatrick
YesNo
Ben Griffin
YesNo
Brooks Koepka
YesNo
Zach Bauchou
YesNo
Viktor Hovland
YesNo
Chandler Phillips
YesNo
Cam Davis
YesNo
Garrick Higgo
YesNo
Brice Garnett
YesNo
Austin Eckroat
YesNo
Takumi Kanaya
YesNo
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
YesNo
Matthieu Pavon
YesNo
Keith Mitchell
YesNo
Jeremy Paul
YesNo
Corey Conners
YesNo
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
YesNo
Davis Chatfield
YesNo
Max Greyserman
YesNo
Eric Cole
YesNo
Adrien Saddier
YesNo
Rico Hoey
YesNo
John Parry
YesNo
David Lipsky
YesNo
Tom Kim
YesNo
Andrew Novak
YesNo
Matt McCarty
YesNo
Kevin Roy
YesNo
Pontus Nyholm
YesNo
Kristoffer Reitan
YesNo
Charley Hoffman
YesNo
Ricky Castillo
YesNo
Michael Brennan
YesNo
Max McGreevy
YesNo
Matthias Schmid
YesNo
Emiliano Grillo
YesNo
Chandler Blanchet
YesNo
Lee Hodges
YesNo
Robert MacIntyre
YesNo
Pierceson Coody
YesNo
Gordon Sargent
YesNo
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
YesNo
Patrick Rodgers
YesNo
Lucas Glover
YesNo
Nick Dunlap
YesNo
Taylor Moore
YesNo
A.J. Ewart
YesNo
Chad Ramey
YesNo
Wyndham Clark
YesNo
Davis Riley
YesNo
Nicolai Hojgaard
YesNo
Steven Fisk
YesNo
Billy Horschel
YesNo
Mark Hubbard
YesNo
Bud Cauley
YesNo
Aaron Rai
YesNo
Max Homa
YesNo
Stephan Jaeger
YesNo
Kensei Hirata
YesNo
Marcelo Rozo
YesNo
Rasmus Hojgaard
YesNo
Zac Blair
YesNo
Patton Kizzire
YesNo
Rafael Campos
YesNo
Paul Peterson
YesNo
Jeffrey Kang
YesNo
Beau Hossler
YesNo
Brian Campbell
YesNo
Mackenzie Hughes
YesNo
Ryo Hisatsune
YesNo
Thorbjorn Olesen
YesNo
Peter Malnati
YesNo
Doug Ghim
YesNo
Patrick Cantlay
YesNo
Matt Kuchar
YesNo
Patrick Fishburn
YesNo
Ze-Cheng Dou
YesNo
William Mouw
YesNo
Isaiah Salinda
YesNo
Sung-Jae Im
YesNo
Blades Brown
YesNo
David Ford
YesNo
Michael Kim
YesNo
Luke Clanton
YesNo
Marco Penge
YesNo
Greg Koch
YesNo
Adam Schenk
YesNo
Joe Highsmith
YesNo
Adam Hadwin
YesNo
Mac Meissner
YesNo
Tony Finau
YesNo
Taylor Pendrith
YesNo
Keegan Bradley
YesNo
Johnny Keefer
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 19:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is exhibiting extreme mispricing. Current prices (e.g., Henry Lebioda at 21 cents) imply win probabilities of over 20% for marginal players, whereas their actual win probability in a 144-player PGA field is less than 1%. The sum of implied probabilities far exceeds 100% (likely over 200%), indicating the market is crashing from faulty initial liquidity (0.50) towards rationality. Top stars like Xander Schauffele (8 cents) are priced closer to reality but are distorted by the overall market chaos. The fair value for the vast majority of listed players is near 0-1 cents.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, prices for almost all non-star players (e.g., Blades Brown, Jacob Bridgeman) crashed from ~49c to the 4c-25c range. The reason is the market finally correcting from faulty initial liquidity pricing (where all options defaulted to 0.50). Although the current corrected prices of 20c+ are still severely overvalued, they show massive volatility as prices revert towards reality.
March 16, 2026, Jacob Bridgeman's price exhibited extreme volatility, dropping from 49c to 4c, bouncing back to 25c, and then settling lower, indicating a battle between liquidity providers and arbitrageurs.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket data suggests players like Henry Lebioda have a 21% chance of winning, whereas mainstream sportsbooks and PGA expert analysis would place their win probability below 1%. The prediction market's current pricing is completely detached from the reality of professional golf, driven primarily by illiquidity and faulty initialization.
