All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Arkansas
YesNo
Texas
YesNo
Kentucky
YesNo
South Carolina
YesNo
Vanderbilt
YesNo
Oklahoma
YesNo
Tennessee
YesNo
Alabama
YesNo
Ole Miss
YesNo
Georgia
YesNo
Missouri
YesNo
Texas A&M
YesNo
LSU
YesNo
Duke
YesNo
Fairfield
YesNo
North Carolina
YesNo
Illinois
YesNo
Villanova
YesNo
Colorado
YesNo
Southern
YesNo
Gonzaga
YesNo
Washington
YesNo
Vermont
YesNo
Stephen F. Austin
YesNo
Syracuse
YesNo
Nebraska
YesNo
Missouri State
YesNo
Clemson
YesNo
Arizona State
YesNo
UCLA
YesNo
Howard
YesNo
Louisville
YesNo
Richmond
YesNo
Holy Cross
YesNo
Samford
YesNo
Cal Baptist
YesNo
Fairleigh Dickinson
YesNo
Maryland
YesNo
West Virginia
YesNo
Jacksonville
YesNo
Murray State
YesNo
Idaho
YesNo
Oklahoma State
YesNo
Iowa State
YesNo
UConn
YesNo
Charleston
YesNo
UTSA
YesNo
Michigan
YesNo
Minnesota
YesNo
NC State
YesNo
TCU
YesNo
UC San Diego
YesNo
Baylor
YesNo
Michigan State
YesNo
Miami (OH)
YesNo
Iowa
YesNo
High Point
YesNo
James Madison
YesNo
Colorado State
YesNo
Ohio State
YesNo
Oregon
YesNo
Virginia Tech
YesNo
USC
YesNo
Virginia
YesNo
Western Illinois
YesNo
South Dakota State
YesNo
Princeton
YesNo
Texas Tech
YesNo
Notre Dame
YesNo
Wisconsin-Green Bay
YesNo
Rhode Island
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.05 09:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market pricing is extremely irrational and suffers from a severe 'missing favorite' bias. Real-world data as of March 5, 2026, indicates UConn (31-0, AP #1) and UCLA (AP #2) are the overwhelming title favorites, yet neither is listed as an option. Under the rules, if unlisted UConn or UCLA wins, all listed options resolve to 'No'. Currently, Mississippi St., Florida, and Auburn are all priced ~44 cents, implying a 44% win probability for each, which is mathematically impossible (sum >130%) and ignores their lack of real-world contender status. South Carolina, the SEC Champion and AP #3 team, is the only listed option with genuine competitiveness, yet is priced (9.5c) far below these bubble options. Therefore, aside from SC and Texas, the fair value for most options should be near 0.
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Movers
March 02, 2026 - March 05, 2026, Oklahoma's price crashed from 43.8c to 20.2c. This correction likely reflects market participants realizing the previous high (~44c) was an unsustainable bubble, although 20c is still overpriced relative to its true win probability.
Feb 27, 2026 - Feb 28, 2026, Florida's price spiked instantly from 4.5c to 45c and has remained elevated. This surge, unsupported by any news (Florida is not a top contender), is likely due to illiquidity-driven manipulation or an algorithmic glitch, creating the current arbitrage opportunity.
Divergence
Massive divergence exists. Mainstream sports media (ESPN, AP Poll) unanimously identify UConn (31-0) as the absolute title favorite, followed by UCLA and South Carolina. However, the prediction market prices Mississippi St., Florida, and Auburn as top favorites (~44c), completely ignoring real-world team rankings and the existence of UConn. The actual contender, South Carolina, is priced 5th in the market (9.5c), an inversion demonstrating severe market failure.
