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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Aryna Sabalenka
YesNo
Iga Swiatek
YesNo
Elena Rybakina
YesNo
Qinwen Zheng
YesNo
Coco Gauff
YesNo
Mirra Andreeva
YesNo
Victoria Mboko
YesNo
Jessica Pegula
YesNo
Amanda Anisimova
YesNo
Naomi Osaka
YesNo
Ekaterina Alexandrova
YesNo
Anastasia Potapova
YesNo
Paula Badosa
YesNo
Xiyu Wang
YesNo
Emma Raducanu
YesNo
Dayana Yastremska
YesNo
Maya Joint
YesNo
Sofia Kenin
YesNo
Belinda Bencic
YesNo
Barbora Krejcikova
YesNo
Diana Shnaider
YesNo
Daria Kasatkina
YesNo
Liudmila Samsonova
YesNo
Marketa Vondrousova
YesNo
Marie Bouzkova
YesNo
Madison Keys
YesNo
Elina Svitolina
YesNo
Beatriz Haddad Maia
YesNo
Donna Vekic
YesNo
Linda Noskova
YesNo
Katie Boulter
YesNo
Karolina Muchova
YesNo
Emma Navarro
YesNo
Alexandra Eala
YesNo
Tereza Valentova
YesNo
Ashlyn Krueger
YesNo
Jelena Ostapenko
YesNo
Clara Tauson
YesNo
Jasmine Paolini
YesNo
Elise Mertens
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 15:06 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is experiencing 'Post-Indian Wells Volatility,' characterized by severe Recency Bias. Elena Rybakina's price (20.1c) has been irrationally bid up in the last 48 hours due to tournament performance (likely a win), completely ignoring her long-term health risks and inconsistency; 15c is a fairer valuation. Aryna Sabalenka (32c) is correcting from a 41c peak as the market takes profits, yet a 32% implied probability remains rich for an event 6 months out. Iga Swiatek (17c) has executed a textbook mean reversion, bouncing from a severely oversold 8c back to a rational zone; ~18% represents the pivot of her intrinsic value as World No. 1. Coco Gauff (6.15c) remains undervalued due to injury fears. The top three players currently command nearly 70% implied probability, squeezing the field and creating long-term value in options like Qinwen Zheng.
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Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Iga Swiatek's price rebounded from 8.0c to 17.0c, as the market realized the previous sell-off following her Indian Wells loss was excessive (oversold), prompting value-driven mean reversion bets.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026, Elena Rybakina's price skyrocketed from 8.6c to 25.7c before settling at 20.1c, driven by dominant performances (likely winning the title) at Indian Wells, triggering FOMO buying.
March 15, 2026 - March 17, 2026, Aryna Sabalenka's price corrected from 41.5c to 32.0c due to a 'sell the news' reaction after the tournament concluded and liquidity draining toward the surging Rybakina and recovering Swiatek.
March 11, 2026 - March 14, 2026, Aryna Sabalenka's price surged from 30.5c to 37.5c, attributed to her early dominance at Indian Wells consolidating her status as the hard-court favorite.
March 10, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Iga Swiatek's price crashed from 15.5c to 8.0c following a confidence collapse triggered by her upset loss.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market is currently pricing Elena Rybakina (20%) above Iga Swiatek (17%) based on a single week's performance, which contradicts mainstream sports betting odds and expert consensus. Typically, Rybakina trails Swiatek and Sabalenka in Slam futures due to her health volatility. The market's current pricing represents an overreaction, equating short-term form with long-term reliability.
