All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
3.3%
YesNo
≤2.9%
YesNo
3.6%
YesNo
3.0%
YesNo
3.4%
YesNo
3.1%
YesNo
3.7%+
YesNo
3.2%
YesNo
3.5%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 02:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF explicitly projected global GDP growth at 3.3% for 2026. This is the primary anchor for market resolution. Given the inertia of institutional forecasts, the final settlement figure is highly likely to land on the current forecast (3.3%) or its immediate neighbors (3.2%/3.4%). However, current market pricing completely defies this fundamental data, with the '3.3%' option trading at a severely depressed 6 cents. While other agencies like Goldman Sachs forecast lower growth (~2.9%), the market resolves on IMF data. Therefore, fair value should reflect a normal distribution peaking at 3.3%, correcting the current market's irrational 'hole' in the center.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
From Mar 09, 2026, to Mar 15, 2026, the price of the '3.0%' option surged from 6.7c to 25.85c. This is likely due to the market digesting more bearish 2026 growth forecasts from other institutions (e.g., Goldman Sachs, UN) which range between 2.7%-2.9%, causing capital to rotate toward lower growth outcomes.
From Feb 22, 2026, to Feb 25, 2026, the price of the '3.6%' option surged from 23.35c to 35.45c. This was likely driven by irrational volatility within a chaotic pricing structure, as no fundamental data supported a sudden jump to 3.6% growth (far above the IMF's 3.3% forecast).
Divergence
The core divergence lies in the pricing of the 'anchor.' The IMF's latest official forecast is 3.3%, yet the prediction market prices the '3.3%' option at a rock-bottom 6c, favoring '3.4%' (32c) and '3.2%' (28c) instead. This suggests market participants are hedging on slight revisions while excessively discounting the probability of the forecast remaining unchanged. Additionally, the sum of implied probabilities far exceeds 100% (~190%), and the market retains a high premium for extreme growth (3.6% and 3.7%+), which contradicts the mainstream economic consensus of a slowdown (trending below 3.0%).
