From Apr 28, 2026, to Apr 29, 2026, massive repricing occurred across all options: ≤2.9% rose from 30c to 47.5c, 3.0% from 17.15c to 49.05c, 3.1% from 33.9c to 46.0c, 3.2% from 14.2c to 49.35c, 3.3% from 25.9c to 47.95c, 3.4% from 1.45c to 25.4c, 3.5% from 2.2c to 48.75c, 3.6% from 1.15c to 49.6c, and 3.7%+ from 14.95c to 48.6c, followed by partial retracements on Apr 30. This was likely caused by a complete breakdown in liquidity or a pricing algorithm anomaly. From Apr 13, 2026, to Apr 14, 2026, the '3.2%' option crashed from 27.6c to 5.35c. This was driven by major market participants reallocating their positions, with liquidity shifting toward lower growth brackets (such as 3.1% and ≤2.9%) amidst intensifying pessimistic macroeconomic expectations. From Mar 25, 2026, to Mar 30, 2026, the '3.3%' option surged from 4.05c to a peak of 41.75c (settling at 27.25c), as market participants began correcting previous mispricing to align with the IMF's baseline forecast. Simultaneously, the '3.6%' option crashed from 31.35c to 12.7c, and the '3.4%' option dropped from 23.85c to 10.6c, reflecting a correction of earlier irrational exuberance. From Mar 09, 2026, to Mar 15, 2026, the price of the '3.0%' option surged from 6.7c to 25.85c. This is likely due to the market digesting more bearish 2026 growth forecasts from other institutions (e.g., Goldman Sachs, UN) which range between 2.7%-2.9%, causing capital to rotate toward lower growth outcomes. From Feb 22, 2026, to Feb 25, 2026, the price of the '3.6%' option surged from 23.35c to 35.45c. This was likely driven by irrational volatility within a chaotic pricing structure, as no fundamental data supported a sudden jump to 3.6% growth (far above the IMF's 3.3% forecast).

The current prediction market shows almost all options trading with Yes Prices between 25% and 50%, causing the sum of implied probabilities to far exceed 100%. This chaotic pricing does not reflect true market expectations and severely diverges from the mainstream consensus of moderate global economic growth (around 3.1%-3.2%).