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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Jeff Bezos
YesNo
Sergey Brin
YesNo
Mark Zuckerberg
YesNo
Larry Page
YesNo
Bernard Arnault
YesNo
Larry Ellison
YesNo
Elon Musk
YesNo
Jensen Huang
YesNo
Warren Buffett
YesNo
Steve Ballmer
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 08:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With only 14 days left, the market has solidified into a 'Sergey Brin defense vs. Jeff Bezos offense' scenario. Sergey Brin is the overwhelming favorite for #3 at 72.5c, driven by Google's recent stock strength relative to Amazon, which has cemented Larry Page at #2 and Brin at #3. However, paying 72.5c with two weeks of tech sector volatility remaining feels expensive; a single news cycle or macro shift could erase the multi-billion dollar gap. Jeff Bezos, priced at only 20c, is the sole viable challenger and appears undervalued; his fair win probability is likely closer to 30% given the potential for an Amazon rally. Larry Page's drop to 1c confirms the market consensus that he is securely locked at #2 and unlikely to fall to #3. Mark Zuckerberg has effectively dropped out of contention due to Meta's recent lag.
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Movers
Mar 13 - Mar 14, 2026, Sergey Brin's price surged from 55.5c to 72.5c, while Jeff Bezos dropped from 28c to 19.5c. The market reacted decisively to the latest net worth data, confirming that Google's recent stock rally has widened the gap between Brin and Bezos, causing liquidity to flee Bezos and consolidate into Brin.
Mar 5 - Mar 8, 2026, Mark Zuckerberg's price plunged from 16.5c to 4.5c. This was due to Meta's stock underperformance, which eroded his net worth and effectively disqualified him from the race for the #3 spot in the eyes of the market.
Feb 23 - Feb 24, 2026, Larry Page's price dropped from 12.5c to 7.5c (and now sits at 1.1c). As Google stock rose, Page (who holds more equity than Brin) solidified his position at #2, making it increasingly unlikely for him to land at #3, thus driving down his price for this specific rank.
