The rules strictly define eligible post types, excluding normal replies but including those on the main feed. Deleted posts also count if captured within 5 minutes. Moreover, resolution heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (Polymarket X Tracker), which could lead to disputes if it malfunctions or misses posts.

Predicting the exact number of tweets from the official White House account in a specific week is a highly niche and trivial novelty market. Most people would never think about or track this metric before seeing the question.

April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026: The price of the '180-199' option surged from 20.5c to 41.5c (before settling at 31.5c), the '160-179' option dropped from 46.5c to 32c, and the '200+' option surged from 6.5c to 30.5c (settling at 22c). This is due to the market significantly raising its expectations for the White House account's posting frequency as the observation period approached, anticipating a higher daily average. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026: The 'yes' prices for lower posting brackets (e.g., '<20', '40-59', '60-79', '80-99') all plummeted drastically (by over 20c). This occurred because the market ruled out the possibility of extremely low posting frequencies, and liquidity concentrated in the higher posting brackets.

The market resolution relies entirely on Polymarket's specific tracker. The detailed rules regarding the exclusion of replies and the ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts create moderate risk, as users' manual counts may easily diverge from the tracker's data.

This is a highly entertaining and novelty market. Aside from specific participants closely monitoring crypto social dynamics, the general public would not think about or care exactly how many times a specific individual tweets in a given week.

Between 06:10 and 16:00 on April 3, 2026, the price of the '<20' option plummeted from 85c to 34.5c, while the '20-39' option surged from 13c to 48.5c, and the '40-59' option jumped from 1.5c to 14.9c. This indicates a sudden increase in CZ's actual posting volume or a strong market expectation of more frequent posts in the coming days, shifting the projected total into higher brackets.

Moderate rule risk exists. The rules exclude regular replies but include main feed replies, making manual verification difficult. Furthermore, deleted posts must survive ~5 minutes to be captured, and the heavy reliance on a specific third-party tracker could cause discrepancies with the public's intuitive count.

Highly exotic market. Predicting the exact number of social media posts a specific individual makes in a given week is not a mainstream topic; it is an entertainment-driven speculation tailored for crypto prediction market users.

April 3, 2026 21:25 - April 3, 2026 22:30, the price of '300-319' plummeted from 32.5c to 12.5c, as the posting frequency significantly slowed down after the initial surge, prompting traders to revise their final count expectations downward based on the updated pace. April 3, 2026 16:00 - April 3, 2026 17:05, the price of '300-319' surged from 12.5c to 32.5c, because the tracking period had just started and Musk exhibited a sudden burst of tweeting activity, prompting traders to sharply revise their final count projections upwards.

Betting on the specific weekly social media posting frequency of a politician is a classic novelty market. While not as mainstream as predicting election outcomes, it is quite common and entertaining within specific crypto prediction trading communities.

March 31, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the Yes prices for the 120-139, 140-159, and 40-59 brackets plummeted by over 15c each (e.g., 140-159 dropped from 26.5c to 5c). The reason is that as the tracking period approached, market forecasting models priced out extreme posting frequencies, causing expectations to rapidly converge into the standard 80-119 mean range.