From April 30, 2026, to May 2, 2026, the Democratic Party's price plunged from 89.5c to 44.5c, while the Republican Party's price surged from 11.5c to 53c. This was caused by large irrational sell-offs and buys in an illiquid market, leading to severe price deviation. From April 11, 2026, to April 17, 2026, prices remained completely static. The Democratic Party held steady at 91.5c, and the Republican Party at 7.5c, with no volatility. From March 18, 2026, to April 2, 2026, prices remained completely static. The Democratic Party held steady at 90.5c, and the Republican Party at 8c, with no volatility. The market has fully digested the 2024 election results and the district's structural characteristics, forming a solid consensus on the 2026 outcome. From March 11, 2026, to March 18, 2026, prices remained completely static. The Democratic Party held steady at 90.5c, and the Republican Party at 8c, with no volatility. From February 24, 2026, to March 2, 2026, prices were similarly stable, unaffected by external news.

Market prices imply a slight Republican advantage (53%) over Democrats (44.5%), which severely diverges from mainstream election analysts' consensus. After redistricting, AL-02 is a highly safe Democratic seat (with a Black Voting Age Population over 50%), and mainstream analysis widely considers Democrats to have an overwhelming advantage here. This pricing anomaly is highly likely due to a lack of liquidity in the prediction market or manipulation by a single large trader.