All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Jared Hudson
YesNo
Barry Moore
YesNo
Steve Marshall
YesNo
Morgan Murphy
YesNo
Rodney Walker
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 14:32 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As the May 19 primary approaches, the market is further pricing in the decisive nature of Donald Trump's endorsement of Barry Moore. While Steve Marshall retains a floor of ~18-20% as the incumbent AG, his path to victory in an Alabama GOP primary without the MAGA mantle and facing a $5M ad deficit is exceedingly narrow. Jared Hudson's decline from 9c to 4c over the past week indicates that 'outsider' appeal is fading, with votes and capital consolidating around Moore. Moore's current price of 77c slightly undervalues his probable victory; fair value sits closer to 80c.
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