While predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is somewhat niche, weather data prediction is a recurring category on prediction markets. It's not extremely bizarre, though rarely a focus for the general public.

Between May 2 and May 3, 2026, the price of the 28°C option surged from around 32c to 69c. This was driven by the nearing resolution date and weather models consolidating certainty around a 28°C high. Between May 2 and May 3, 2026, the 29°C and 30°C options saw significant drops. Notably, the 30°C option plummeted from a peak of 25.5c down to 4.5c, as confirmed rainfall forecasts practically eliminated the possibility of temperatures reaching or exceeding 30°C.

This is a prediction market targeting the specific high temperature of a single day in Chengdu. Aside from local residents or specialized weather derivative traders, the general public rarely thinks about or predicts this specific data point, giving it a moderate level of novelty and exoticism.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from around 11c to 42c, the 21°C option jumped from 1c to 19c, while the 24°C option plummeted from a peak of 37c to 6c, and the 25°C option dropped from 16c to 5c. This is because, as the resolution date arrived, real-time weather data indicated that the actual high temperature for the day would be significantly lower than previous long-term forecasts (only around 21-23°C).

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 25°C option surged from 36.5c to 49.5c, as the approaching resolution time solidified weather forecasts pointing to 25°C as the daily high. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 24°C option rose from 32c to 41.5c, indicating the market believes there is still a significant chance the recorded high will be 24°C. May 2, 2026: The 26°C option temporarily spiked from 9.5c to 23c before falling back to 14c, reflecting short-term uncertainty from intraday temperature fluctuations. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The 23°C option crashed from 23c down to 0.55c, as actual temperatures already exceeded 23°C, eliminating it as a possible winning outcome.

Betting on the exact highest temperature (to the whole degree) of a specific city on a given day is a very niche and novelty market. Ordinary people rarely think about or forecast such highly specific meteorological outcomes.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged rapidly from around 20c to 46.5c, while options for 25°C and above plummeted to near zero. This was driven by actual sensor data on the resolution day (May 3) showing lower-than-expected temperatures (only around 21°C by early afternoon), effectively ruling out the higher temperature ranges. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the market saw smooth adjustments as forecast models updated, with 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C initially holding the highest probabilities before expectations cooled due to increased cloud cover.

May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of 27°C surged from 14.5c to 62c, while 25°C plummeted from 19c to 1.7c, and 28°C dropped from 25c to 6.6c. This is because as the target date of May 3 approached, meteorological forecasts became highly accurate, locking in a high of around 27°C (81°F) and eliminating the uncertainty of lower or higher prior estimates.