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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Dan Sullivan
YesNo
Mary Peltola
YesNo
Ann Diener
YesNo
Dustin Darden
YesNo
Richard Grayson
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 22:18 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While the market currently prices this race as a pure 'Toss-up' (~48.5% vs ~48.5%), fundamental analysis continues to suggest Dan Sullivan is undervalued. The core logic remains: 1. Structural Shift: The repeal of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) is the most significant factor; it removes the systemic mechanism that enabled Peltola's previous cross-party coalition victories, with a return to traditional elections favoring GOP consolidation. 2. Incumbency in a Red State: As an incumbent Republican Senator, Sullivan holds a natural advantage in deep-red Alaska. Although 2026 midterm dynamics might present national headwinds, Peltola's loss in the 2024 House race demonstrated her vulnerability in a non-RCV environment. The market appears to be overpricing the 'star candidate' effect while ignoring the hard constraints of the returned electoral system. Fair value implies Sullivan as a 'Lean Republican' favorite, around 60%.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes on Dan Sullivan + Mary Peltola
Plan Description:
The sum of the Yes prices for Dan Sullivan (48.5c) and Mary Peltola (48.5c) is currently 97c. This implies that buying the winning contracts for both major candidates costs 97c for a potential 100c payout, yielding a 3c profit provided one of them wins. Given Alaska's political landscape, the probability of a third-party candidate winning is extremely low, making this a low-risk arbitrage opportunity (Soft Arb).Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 3¢
|Annualized yield: 4.84%
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market treats this as an absolute 'Toss-up' (48.5/48.5), a pricing structure usually reserved for the most volatile swing states. However, mainstream political analysis (based on Alaska's voting history, incumbency advantage, and the post-RCV institutional environment) would typically rate a Republican incumbent Senator's seat as 'Solid' or at least 'Likely' Republican. The market pricing likely over-indexes on Peltola's personal appeal and potential short-term polling noise, while under-weighting the structural advantages in the macro fundamentals.
