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103 days 6 hrsAnthropic Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
45%+
YesNo
35%+
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 14:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
35%+ Option: Although some public leaderboards (e.g., simulated Wikipedia data) show Claude Opus 4.6's 'Official/No-Tools' score at 34.44% (just shy of 35%), the gap is negligible (<0.6%). Given Anthropic's rapid update cadence and the fact that Opus 4.6 'With Tools' already scores 53%, a minor prompt optimization or sub-version update is virtually guaranteed to clear the official 35% bar. The market price of 91c offers a ~35% annualized yield, presenting an attractive low-risk opportunity; fair value is set at 96c. 45%+ Option: Sentiment has soured significantly (dropping from 49c to 34.5c) as mid-March passes without the rumored 'Claude 5' launch. However, Google's Gemini 3.1 has already hit 45.9%, proving feasibility. If Anthropic releases Claude 5 or Sonnet 4.7 in Q2, clearing 45% is highly probable. The implied probability that Anthropic has zero major releases in the next 3.5 months is likely overstated by the market; fair value is pegged at 40c, viewing the sell-off as an overreaction.
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Divergence
Market pricing (45%+ at only 34.5c) implies extreme pessimism, suggesting Anthropic will remain silent in Q2. However, mainstream tech media and leaks (e.g., Sonnet 5 'Fennec') consistently indicate Anthropic's release cycle has compressed to monthly/quarterly cadences, and Google's Gemini 3.1 has proven that a 45% score is technically achievable. The market is likely overreacting to short-term delays, ignoring the high probability of a Q2 model release.
