[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the NCAA Triple-Double market (currently only $20 volume), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth, and combine this with 2026 regular season player stats to update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk for the 'Yes' option.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the NCAA Triple-Double market (currently only $20 volume), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth, and combine this with 2026 regular season player stats to update the assessment of fair value and liquidity risk for the 'Yes' option.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Historical Frequency Statistics] Search historical data from the past 10 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournaments (2016-2025) to calculate the actual ratio of tournaments where a triple-double occurred, establishing a 'base rate' to verify if the current odds for a 2026 triple-double are statistically justified.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Historical Frequency Statistics] Search historical data from the past 10 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournaments (2016-2025) to calculate the actual ratio of tournaments where a triple-double occurred, establishing a 'base rate' to verify if the current odds for a 2026 triple-double are statistically justified.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: KOL Sentiment Analysis] Search Twitter or sports forums for recent opinions from college basketball analysts regarding top 2026 tournament players (e.g., all-around guards or point-forwards), and summarize whether there is specific bullish or bearish sentiment regarding any player being a legitimate 'triple-double threat'.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: KOL Sentiment Analysis] Search Twitter or sports forums for recent opinions from college basketball analysts regarding top 2026 tournament players (e.g., all-around guards or point-forwards), and summarize whether there is specific bullish or bearish sentiment regarding any player being a legitimate 'triple-double threat'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Sports|$121 Vol|

19 days 4 hrs

NCAA Tournament: Player to record triple-double? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

17.5¢

82.5¢

22¢

78¢

+4.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.11 23:22 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Historical data indicates that triple-doubles in the NCAA Tournament are extremely rare. Since official assist tracking began in 1987, there have been only about 10 official triple-doubles (including Ja Morant in 2019 and Marcus Domask in 2024). This translates to a frequency of approximately 24% (9 out of 37 tournaments) where at least one occurred. Given the higher defensive intensity of tournament play compared to the regular season and the 40-minute game duration, the fair probability for 'Yes' should align with this historical baseline (~22%). The current market price of 28 cents slightly overvalues the event, likely pricing in a premium for star player hype.

Sign up to view more information

Divergence

There is a divergence between market pricing (28% probability) and historical statistical reality (~21-24% frequency). Mainstream media often hypes 'do-it-all' star players (like Kam Jones or similar archetypes active in the 2025/26 cycle) leading up to the tournament, causing retail bettors to overestimate the likelihood of 'Yes'. In reality, the pace and targeted defense of tournament games make triple-doubles significantly harder to achieve than in the regular season.

NCAA Tournament: Player to record triple-double? - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner