Argentina Monthly Inflation - April
Economy|$10.1k Vol|
time12 hrs 57 mins

Argentina Monthly Inflation - April - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 57 minutes ago
Top Undervalued
+7¢
2.8–3.0%(No)
+5¢
2.2–2.4%(Yes)
+2¢
2.5–2.7%(No)

Argentina Monthly Inflation - April AI analysis: • +7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from market institutions, Argentina's inflation for April is expec...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Ceará Governor Election Winner
Politics|$53.1k Vol|
time143 days 18 hrs

Ceará Governor Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+53.5¢
Ciro Gomes(No)
+27¢
Elmano de Freitas(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The prediction market is currently facing severe mispricing or illiquidity. Ciro Gomes' Yes price is...
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Divergence
The market severely overestimates Ciro Gomes' chances of winning (63.5%). Mainstream political analysis suggests that given the strong dominance of the PT in Ceará (incumbent Elmano de Freitas and former governor Camilo Santana), Ciro Gomes is currently politically isolated, making a gubernatorial victory highly unlikely. This divergence is likely due to extremely poor market liquidity or irrational speculation by a few traders.
AI Analysis
Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?
Science|$34.5k Vol|
time17 days 12 hrs

Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
2200(Yes)
+0.5¢
1950(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing, the probability of reaching 1900 or more cases is approximately ...
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Rule Risk
The primary risk lies in reporting lags and exclusivity. The rules explicitly state that only the CDC official counter is used for resolution. This means even if local state agencies or news outlets report widespread cases, they will not count unless updated on the CDC system by the deadline. Traders must account for the discrepancy between actual cases and officially published CDC numbers.
Exotics
Forecasting measles cases is irrelevant in traditional financial markets, but in post-COVID prediction markets, public health and epidemiology have become a stable, albeit niche, category. It is not entirely absurd, but remains outside mainstream public discourse.
AI Analysis
EagleRock IPO Closing Market Cap
Tech|$11.6k Vol|
time12 hrs 57 mins

EagleRock IPO Closing Market Cap

Top Undervalued
+5.3¢
$3.5B+(No)
+0.6¢
No IPO before July 2026(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
EagleRock Land's anticipated pricing range implies a valuation between $2.4B and $2.6B. Given the su...
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Rule Risk
There is a significant rule trap. Retail participants often rely on financial websites for market cap, which frequently only calculate based on the publicly traded share class. However, the rules explicitly require including all unlisted share classes and applying conversion ratios, potentially resulting in a settlement market cap much higher than standard data sources show.
Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of '$2.5B–$3.0B' surged from 32.5c to 49.5c, while '$3.0B–$3.5B' plunged from 20.5c to 6c, and '$2.0B–$2.5B' rose from 27c to 37c. This occurred as final subscription clarity emerged on the eve of the IPO, cooling expectations for extreme valuations (a massive first-day pop) and causing capital to rapidly consolidate into the reasonable $2.0B-$3.0B ranges. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of '$3.0B–$3.5B' surged from 10.5c to 24c, likely due to market expectations of a strong IPO debut and a significant first-day pop. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of '$2.0B–$2.5B' plunged from 32c to 10.5c before rebounding to 23.5c, reflecting market divergence on pricing and opening performance expectations, causing capital to quickly shift between adjacent brackets.
AI Analysis
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 13?
Weather|$10.6k Vol|
time57 mins

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+50.5¢
54-55°F(No)
+14.6¢
50-51°F(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As May 13 approaches, weather forecast models for the lowest temperature at NYC's LaGuardia Airport ...
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Movers
May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The YES price for the 52-53°F option surged from 12.5c to 32c, while the 48-49°F option plummeted from 17c to 4.3c. This was caused by updated meteorological models as the date approached, which ruled out lower temperatures and consolidated the forecast into the 52-55°F range.
AI Analysis
Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 13?
Weather|$21.3k Vol|
time57 mins

Lowest temperature in Seoul on May 13?

Top Undervalued
+32.8¢
12°C(No)
+2.6¢
10°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices indicate the Yes price for 12°C has risen to 32c, 13°C to 28.5c, and 14°C to 8...
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Rule Risk
The title asks for the lowest temperature in 'Seoul', but the resolution rules strictly specify the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station'. Incheon airport is located on a coastal island and its temperature often differs significantly from central Seoul. This geographical discrepancy is a notable rule trap.
Exotics
Asking for the exact lowest daily temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche topic. Aside from weather enthusiasts or locals, few people actively predict and trade this, although weather markets do have a standard presence in prediction markets.
Movers
May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the 11°C option dropped from 21.5c to 6c, the 14°C option dropped from 24.05c to 8.45c, and the 12°C option rose from 19c to 32c. This was due to weather forecast models converging as the date approached, confirming the lowest temperature would likely land in the 12-13°C range, thereby decreasing the probabilities of the edge ranges and increasing the core ranges.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2.8–3.0%
YesNo
18¢
82¢
11¢
89¢
+7¢
2.2–2.4%
YesNo
23¢
77¢
28¢
72¢
+5¢

Expand to view all 8 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Hedging
GGAL
YPF
Argentina's monthly inflation data directly reflects the effectiveness of its economic reforms and macro stability. An inflation print that misses expectations can significantly impact Argentine assets (such as US-listed ADRs like YPF and GGAL), potentially causing price movements around 5%. Therefore, it holds notable trading and hedging value for EM-focused portfolios, though it has negligible impact on broader US indices.
Movers
From 2026-05-09 to 2026-05-11, the price of the '3.4–3.6%' option experienced extreme volatility, spiking from 0.15c to 28.4c, dropping, rising again to 24.4c, and falling back to 4c, likely due to anomalous trades in a very low liquidity environment. From 2026-05-08 to 2026-05-09, the price of the '2.5–2.7%' option plummeted from 57c to 31.5c before rebounding, while '3.7–3.9%' experienced a brief spike of over 28c before dropping back. This was likely due to severe volatility caused by low liquidity or portfolio adjustments by large traders. From 2026-05-07 to 2026-05-08, the price of the '2.2–2.4%' option plummeted from 45c to 15c, while '2.5–2.7%' stabilized above 50c and '2.8–3.0%' rebounded from 10c to 35c, as the market corrected its optimistic expectations for extremely low inflation with more accurate forecasts ahead of the release. From 2026-05-04 to 2026-05-05, the price of the '4.0%+' option rose from 0.6c to 12.4c, likely reflecting hedging by some investors against an extreme inflation rebound. From 2026-05-03 to 2026-05-04, the price of the '2.8–3.0%' option increased from 18.5c to 38.5c, indicating a market correction towards slightly higher inflation expectations ahead of the data release.

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