All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Civil Contract
YesNo
Prosperous Armenia
YesNo
Bright Armenia
YesNo
Armenian National Congress
YesNo
I Have Honor Alliance
YesNo
Heritage
YesNo
Hanrapetutyun Party
YesNo
Orinats Yerkir
YesNo
Armenia Alliance
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 04:58 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
While Civil Contract's market price has pushed up to 85c, this severely overvalues their probability of winning. Based on prior context, the 'unlisted candidate' risk (e.g., a party backed by Samvel Karapetyan) is a massive structural liability. If an unlisted party wins, all listed options resolve to 'No'. Furthermore, polling support of only ~17-20% for the incumbent does not justify an 85% implied win probability. Although the drop in Armenia Alliance (from 14c to 9.5c) reflects opposition weakness, the market is completely pricing out the risk of a 'black swan' (unlisted winner) or a hung parliament. Fair value remains bearish on the incumbent relative to market price.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The market prices Civil Contract at an 85% win probability, which usually correlates with overwhelming polling dominance. However, available polls show the incumbent polling under 20%, with unlisted potential challengers polling closely behind. The market appears to be betting that the electoral system (seat distribution) will heavily favor the plurality winner, or that the opposition is totally incompetent, which contrasts sharply with the fragmented reality shown in polls.
