[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign dynamics for the Assam 2026 election (e.g., seat-sharing talks within the BJP-led NDA vs. the opposition), and analyzing the low liquidity ($7k) on Polymarket, assess if the odds are fair under the "Most Seats" (not vote share) resolution rule. Also, evaluate the real-time impact of the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) implementation on voter sentiment.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest campaign dynamics for the Assam 2026 election (e.g., seat-sharing talks within the BJP-led NDA vs. the opposition), and analyzing the low liquidity ($7k) on Polymarket, assess if the odds are fair under the "Most Seats" (not vote share) resolution rule. Also, evaluate the real-time impact of the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) implementation on voter sentiment.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for and summarize the latest seat projection data from agencies like C-Voter, Axis My India, or Chanakya for the 2026 Assam elections. Convert the projected seat counts for key parties (BJP, INC, AIUDF) into win probabilities and compare them directly with Polymarket's implied odds to identify arbitrage gaps between mainstream polling and the prediction market.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Search for and summarize the latest seat projection data from agencies like C-Voter, Axis My India, or Chanakya for the 2026 Assam elections. Convert the projected seat counts for key parties (BJP, INC, AIUDF) into win probabilities and compare them directly with Polymarket's implied odds to identify arbitrage gaps between mainstream polling and the prediction market.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 2: Structural Analysis] Delimitation Impact Assessment: Search for the final report of the 2023 Assam Delimitation exercise and analyze the specific fragmentation effect on traditional AIUDF and Congress strongholds. Comparing with 2021 results, deduce if the same vote share would lead to a structural increase in BJP seats under the new map, and determine if the market is underpricing this "gerrymandering" effect.

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 2: Structural Analysis] Delimitation Impact Assessment: Search for the final report of the 2023 Assam Delimitation exercise and analyze the specific fragmentation effect on traditional AIUDF and Congress strongholds. Comparing with 2021 results, deduce if the same vote share would lead to a structural increase in BJP seats under the new map, and determine if the market is underpricing this "gerrymandering" effect.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Politics|$8,376 Vol|

61 days 21 hrs

Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

BJP

YesNo

89.5¢

10.5¢

95¢

5¢

+5.5¢

0¢

CPI

YesNo

2.9¢

97.1¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.9¢

INC

YesNo

6.2¢

93.8¢

5¢

95¢

0¢

+1.2¢

BPF

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

CPI(M)

YesNo

1¢

99¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1¢

AGP

YesNo

0.9¢

99.1¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

NPEP

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

AITC

YesNo

0.7¢

99.3¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.7¢

NCP

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

AIUDF

YesNo

0.25¢

99.75¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.2¢

AI Insights:

03.13 15:29 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

According to authoritative polls like People's Pulse (Jan 2026), the BJP is projected to win 69-74 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 64, while the INC is projected to win only 25-29 seats. As this market resolves based on the 'Single Largest Party' (not alliance), the BJP has an overwhelming advantage. BJP's ally AGP typically contests only ~26-30 seats, making it mathematically impossible for them to surpass BJP's seat count even with a 100% strike rate. Regional players like BPF and AIUDF are limited to specific geographies (Bodoland/Minority areas) and contest too few seats (~15-20) to mathematically win the 'greatest number of seats'. The current market pricing for CPI (3.8c), AITC (3.3c), and AGP (2.7c) is absurdly inefficient as their probability is zero. BJP's fair value is near 95c+, with INC holding residual value as the only theoretical runner-up.

Sign up to view more information

Assam Legislative Assembly Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner