Retrieve the latest data from IMF Portwatch for the Strait of Hormuz, analyze the order book flows and implied probabilities for each bracket (e.g., 40-50 vs 50-60) on Polymarket, and assess whether the market's pricing of geopolitical risk is fair.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the latest data from IMF Portwatch for the Strait of Hormuz, analyze the order book flows and implied probabilities for each bracket (e.g., 40-50 vs 50-60) on Polymarket, and assess whether the market's pricing of geopolitical risk is fair.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search Google News and Twitter for recent military activities involving Iran, the US Navy, or Houthi forces around the Strait of Hormuz in the past week to confirm if any breaking news could drastically reduce shipping volume by the end of March.

AI-powered analysis for: Search Google News and Twitter for recent military activities involving Iran, the US Navy, or Houthi forces around the Strait of Hormuz in the past week to confirm if any breaking news could drastically reduce shipping volume by the end of March.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Visit the IMF Portwatch website to verify the update frequency and data lag, confirming how many days after March 31 the data is typically published and if there is a history of prolonged reporting outages.

AI-powered analysis for: Visit the IMF Portwatch website to verify the update frequency and data lag, confirming how many days after March 31 the data is typically published and if there is a history of prolonged reporting outages.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Query historical data from IMF Portwatch to calculate the baseline '7-day moving average of transit calls' for the Strait of Hormuz in March 2024 and 2025, determining if the market's mainstream prediction brackets align with seasonal norms.

AI-powered analysis for: Query historical data from IMF Portwatch to calculate the baseline '7-day moving average of transit calls' for the Strait of Hormuz in March 2024 and 2025, determining if the market's mainstream prediction brackets align with seasonal norms.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Explain the '7-day moving average' rule in ELI5 terms: If a sudden blockade occurs on March 30th but traffic was normal from March 24-29, will the final settlement value likely remain in a higher bracket due to the averaging effect?

AI-powered analysis for: Explain the '7-day moving average' rule in ELI5 terms: If a sudden blockade occurs on March 30th but traffic was normal from March 24-29, will the final settlement value likely remain in a higher bracket due to the averaging effect?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search marine insurance reports to see if 'war risk premiums' for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have spiked recently, serving as a leading indicator of how institutional investors are pricing risk in the region.

AI-powered analysis for: Search marine insurance reports to see if 'war risk premiums' for tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have spiked recently, serving as a leading indicator of how institutional investors are pricing risk in the region.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for the latest announcements from major shipping giants (e.g., Maersk, MSC) or tanker operators to confirm if they have issued official statements about avoiding the Persian Gulf or rerouting ships.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for the latest announcements from major shipping giants (e.g., Maersk, MSC) or tanker operators to confirm if they have issued official statements about avoiding the Persian Gulf or rerouting ships.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Examine the IMF Portwatch definition of 'Transit Calls' in detail to confirm whether all ship types (including small cargo vessels, non-tankers) are counted, avoiding prediction errors due to misunderstandings of vessel classification.

AI-powered analysis for: Examine the IMF Portwatch definition of 'Transit Calls' in detail to confirm whether all ship types (including small cargo vessels, non-tankers) are counted, avoiding prediction errors due to misunderstandings of vessel classification.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze Google Trends data for terms like 'Strait of Hormuz closure' or 'Tanker attack' to judge if public panic is currently being exaggerated compared to actual events.

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze Google Trends data for terms like 'Strait of Hormuz closure' or 'Tanker attack' to judge if public panic is currently being exaggerated compared to actual events.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for historical periods of similar geopolitical tension (e.g., the 2019 tanker attacks) to analyze how long it took for actual transit volume data to show a significant downtrend on statistical charts after the events.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for historical periods of similar geopolitical tension (e.g., the 2019 tanker attacks) to analyze how long it took for actual transit volume data to show a significant downtrend on statistical charts after the events.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Perform a time decay analysis based on the '7-day moving average' logic: How long until March 31? If data remains stable for the next week, what daily average drop would be mathematically required for the extreme low brackets (0-10 or 10-20) to hit?

AI-powered analysis for: Perform a time decay analysis based on the '7-day moving average' logic: How long until March 31? If data remains stable for the next week, what daily average drop would be mathematically required for the extreme low brackets (0-10 or 10-20) to hit?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Analyze the correlation between Brent Crude Oil prices and this prediction market: If oil prices are stable, is there a logical divergence in the market betting on a drastic reduction in shipping volume (<30)?

AI-powered analysis for: Analyze the correlation between Brent Crude Oil prices and this prediction market: If oil prices are stable, is there a logical divergence in the market betting on a drastic reduction in shipping volume (<30)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Based on the current Order Book depth, assess the potential slippage risk for a $1,000 bet on the '60+' bracket.

AI-powered analysis for: Based on the current Order Book depth, assess the potential slippage risk for a $1,000 bet on the '60+' bracket.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Look for analysis on the resilience of the 'Shadow Fleet' and list bullish arguments on why official statistics might not drop significantly even under sanctions or heightened tensions.

AI-powered analysis for: Look for analysis on the resilience of the 'Shadow Fleet' and list bullish arguments on why official statistics might not drop significantly even under sanctions or heightened tensions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the 'Black Swan' scenario: Compare the implied probability of the '0-10' bracket with geopolitical experts' actual probability estimates of a 'full blockade' (e.g., 1%) to find potential arbitrage in over-hedging.

AI-powered analysis for: Calculate the Expected Value (EV) of the 'Black Swan' scenario: Compare the implied probability of the '0-10' bracket with geopolitical experts' actual probability estimates of a 'full blockade' (e.g., 1%) to find potential arbitrage in over-hedging.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Develop a hedging strategy: If I hold significant long positions in Crude Oil (betting on higher prices), how many shares of 'Volume < 20' should I buy to achieve a Delta Neutral hedge?

AI-powered analysis for: Develop a hedging strategy: If I hold significant long positions in Crude Oil (betting on higher prices), how many shares of 'Volume < 20' should I buy to achieve a Delta Neutral hedge?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Set a strict Stop-Loss line: Based on daily fluctuations in IMF data, define a specific threshold (e.g., daily transit calls dropping below X) that triggers an immediate exit from 'High Volume' positions.

AI-powered analysis for: Set a strict Stop-Loss line: Based on daily fluctuations in IMF data, define a specific threshold (e.g., daily transit calls dropping below X) that triggers an immediate exit from 'High Volume' positions.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Suggest specific 'Stink Bid' limit order prices for the low-probability, high-payout brackets ('0-10' or '10-20') to catch liquidity during potential panic selling triggered by fake news.

AI-powered analysis for: Suggest specific 'Stink Bid' limit order prices for the low-probability, high-payout brackets ('0-10' or '10-20') to catch liquidity during potential panic selling triggered by fake news.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Identify highly correlated alternative assets: Besides Polymarket, can one express a similar view on 'Strait risks boosting freight rates' by going long on tanker stocks (e.g., FRO, EURN)?

AI-powered analysis for: Identify highly correlated alternative assets: Besides Polymarket, can one express a similar view on 'Strait risks boosting freight rates' by going long on tanker stocks (e.g., FRO, EURN)?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Generate a one-page trading plan: Synthesize current IMF data trends and the geopolitical calendar to create a DCA or event-driven trading timeline for the next 3 weeks.

AI-powered analysis for: Generate a one-page trading plan: Synthesize current IMF data trends and the geopolitical calendar to create a DCA or event-driven trading timeline for the next 3 weeks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Geopolitics|$407.7k Vol|

12 days 5 hrs

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March? - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

0-10

YesNo

62.5¢

37.5¢

92¢

8¢

+29.5¢

0¢

10-20

YesNo

21¢

79¢

7¢

93¢

0¢

+14¢

60+

YesNo

5¢

95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+5¢

30-40

YesNo

4.2¢

95.8¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+4.2¢

40-50

YesNo

3.15¢

96.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+3.1¢

50-60

YesNo

2.2¢

97.8¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.2¢

20-30

YesNo

2.3¢

97.7¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.3¢

AI Insights:

03.17 09:25 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the latest geopolitical intelligence for mid-March 2026, the US/Israel 'Operation Epic Fury' against Iran is ongoing, rendering the Strait of Hormuz 'effectively closed'. 1. **Current Status**: IMF PortWatch data reports only 1-3 daily transit calls (vs. normal ~140), with confirmed reports of naval mines and GPS spoofing. 2. **Trend**: As of March 17, the 7-day moving average has collapsed to single digits. For the March 31 resolution value (7-day MA) to recover above 10, daily volumes would need to surge to >20 ships/day starting March 25. 3. **Barriers**: Given war risk insurance premiums spiking to 5%, the 'weeks' required for mine clearing, and extreme carrier risk aversion, a significant resumption of traffic by month-end is highly improbable. The '0-10' bracket is effectively a lock.

Exotics

This is a relatively niche macroeconomic/geopolitical metric. While shipping data is important for global trade, the general public rarely tracks the specific number of ship transits in a specific strait. It belongs to a specialized segment of macro analysis.

Hedging

Crude Oil

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint. A significant reduction in ship transits typically signals geopolitical tension (e.g., conflict or blockade), which would cause crude oil prices to spike. If the data shows a sharp drop to very low levels (e.g., 0-10 or 10-20), it would be a major supply shock signal. Conversely, normal transit volumes alleviate supply concerns. Therefore, this metric is highly inversely correlated with crude oil prices.

Movers

March 11, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the '0-10' option surged from 26.5c to 72c. This was driven by the escalation of 'Operation Epic Fury' and maritime intelligence (IMF PortWatch) confirming daily transit calls had collapsed to 1-3 vessels, forcing the market to price in a 'prolonged blockade'. March 11, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the '60+' option plunged from 17c to 7.5c, as major shipping lines suspended bookings indefinitely due to war risk insurance premiums hitting 5%, dashing hopes for a quick recovery in volume.

Divergence

While the market direction is correct (favoring '0-10'), the pricing remains too conservative. Assigning only 72% probability to '0-10' implies a 28% chance of a miraculous recovery to >10 ships within two weeks. However, military experts and maritime analysts agree that even with an immediate ceasefire, mine clearing and logistical restart would take weeks. The market significantly underestimates the post-conflict lag in shipping logistics.

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March? - AI Odds Analysis

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