All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Jay Feely
YesNo
Joseph Chaplik
YesNo
Jason Duey
YesNo
Paul Reevs
YesNo
Todd Graham
YesNo
Derrick Gallego
YesNo
Brandon Sowers
YesNo
John Trobough
YesNo
Kari Lake
YesNo
Matt Gress
YesNo
Gina Swoboda
YesNo
Muchelle Ugenti-Rita
YesNo
Mark Brnovich
YesNo
Kaitlin Purrington
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 21:10 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Jay Feely has established himself as the absolute frontrunner. Recent confirmations show he officially switched his run from AZ-05 to AZ-01, backed by key endorsements (including support from Turning Point USA leaders and implied backing from Trump). Major rival Gina Swoboda officially pivoted to run for Secretary of State in February 2026, effectively exiting this race, so her probability should be zero. The only substantive challenger is former State Rep. Joseph Chaplik; while he resigned to focus on the campaign, his Freedom Caucus background may be a liability in this swing district (ticket-splitting district), and polling shows Feely leading significantly in name ID and support. The market's current 76c pricing is slightly conservative, not yet fully discounting Swoboda's exit.
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