All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mark Lamb
YesNo
Travis Grantham
YesNo
Jay Feely
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 21:14 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the latest intelligence as of March 16, 2026, the AZ-05 Republican primary landscape has clarified completely, leaving Mark Lamb as the sole viable contender. Key drivers include: 1. **Travis Grantham Withdrawal**: Search results confirm Grantham suspended his campaign on March 12 due to being called to active duty by the Air Force, stating explicitly he will not file signatures. His probability is effectively zero. 2. **Jay Feely in AZ-01**: It was previously confirmed Feely switched to the AZ-01 race at Trump's suggestion. 3. **Mark Lamb Dominance**: As the only remaining candidate with Trump's endorsement and high name ID, Lamb's probability of nomination is near 100%. The only tail risk is a negligible 'Other' candidate. The market is currently severely mispricing the event by failing to react to Grantham's exit.
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Divergence
Significant divergence detected. The reality is that Travis Grantham has withdrawn due to force majeure (active duty call-up), making his true win probability 0%. However, Polymarket prices still imply a ~9% chance of him winning. This highlights a significant lag in information dissemination within the prediction market, offering massive alpha for informed traders.
