All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Decrease
YesNo
No Change
YesNo
Increase
YesNo
AI Insights:
9 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Given the current date of March 18, 2026, with only 11 days remaining until the March 30 decision, market data shows the 'Decrease' option retracing significantly from 19c to 11c over the past week. This strongly implies that the mid-March CPI release (typically around the 15th) did not provide evidence to support a rate cut (i.e., inflation remains sticky or not low enough). Combined with the Bank of Israel's emphasis on geopolitical (Iran) risks and its 'wait-and-see' guidance from the February meeting, alongside strong Q4 GDP growth (4%), the bar for a rate cut is extremely high. The probability of an Increase is negligible in the current global context. Thus, 'No Change' is a near-certainty, and its current price of 88.5c is still slightly undervalued; fair value sits around 94c.
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Hedging
USD/ILS
TA-35
The Bank of Israel's interest rate decision directly impacts the Shekel (ILS) exchange rate, particularly offering direct and significant tradable value for the USD/ILS pair (often moving 1-2% on surprise decisions). Additionally, the Tel Aviv TA-35 index (Israel's main stock market index) is sensitive to interest rates. While the impact on global assets like DXY is negligible, it holds medium hedging value for Israel-specific assets. As this is a smaller central bank decision, it doesn't move major global indices like the S&P 500, but USD/ILS and TA-35 are the core hedging targets.
