All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
No Change
YesNo
Increase
YesNo
Decrease
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 17:45 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the long-term trend remains in an easing cycle, the drastic price action over the last 48 hours ('No Change' skyrocketing, 'Decrease' plummeting) indicates a significant repricing of the May cut expectations. This is likely driven by the March 15th CPI data coming in hotter than expected or security uncertainties forcing the Bank of Israel (BoI) to adopt a more cautious stance. While analysts previously forecasted cuts, the market's center of gravity has shifted firmly to a 'Pause', warranting a Fair Value tilt towards 'No Change'.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
From March 14, 2026, to March 16, 2026, the price of 'No Change' surged from 32c to 53.5c, while 'Decrease' plummeted from 58.5c to 45.5c. The reason is a sharp market reaction to economic data (likely CPI) released around March 15th or hawkish signals from the central bank, rapidly reversing previous expectations of a certain rate cut in May.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Previous expert consensus (e.g., Goldman Sachs) forecast consecutive cuts in March and May to meet year-end targets, which underpinned the prior dominance of 'Decrease'. However, current prediction market prices have fundamentally reversed, with 'No Change' (53.5c) now the favorite, suggesting market participants are pricing in newer, bearish macro information (such as sticky inflation) that supersedes older analyst reports.
