Bitcoin above ___ on March 31?
Crypto|$17.3k Vol|
time6 days 9 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on March 31? - AI Found +15.9¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+15.9¢
66,000(No)
+15.4¢
68,000(No)
+13.3¢
64,000(No)

Bitcoin above ___ on March 31? AI analysis: • +15.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?
Weather|$127.4k Vol|
time3 days 17 hrs

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 23 - March 29?

Top Undervalued
+10¢
1(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
3¢
Arbitrage
251%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' on all available options (Basket Buy). Plan Description: The sum of the current 'Yes' prices for all options (0 through >5) is approximately 96.5 cents (0.49...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
A confirmed M7.6 earthquake struck near Tonga on March 24, 2026 (USGS), locking the minimum count at...
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Exotics
This is a typical natural disaster prediction market. While earthquakes are common natural phenomena, the general public does not typically predict the exact number of 6.5+ magnitude earthquakes globally in a specific week (a domain of scientific statistics). It is more niche than elections or sports but less absurd than completely fictional questions, placing it in the upper-middle range of exoticism.
Movers
March 24, 2026, Option '0' crashed from 53c to 0.2c, while Option '1' spiked from 33c to 57c (later settling at 49c) and Option '2' rose from 10c to 36c. The driver was a confirmed M7.6 earthquake in Tonga at 04:37 UTC, which eliminated the possibility of '0' events, established '1' as the new baseline favorite, and priced in the risk of subsequent aftershocks increasing the total count.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest Polymarket order book for this earthquake prediction event to analyze the risks of wide spreads caused by extremely low volume ($5.102), and assess whether the current ask prices for the high-probability "0" and "1" options deviate from their theoretical fair value ahead of the March 23 start date.
#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 27)
Culture|$15.3k Vol|
time1 days 17 hrs

#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 27)

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
Babydoll - Dominic Fike(Yes)
+5.1¢
Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Kworb US Spotify Daily chart data (as of March 22), Dominic Fike's 'Babydoll...
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Movers
March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Babydoll - Dominic Fike' surged from 38c to 81c as Kworb data confirmed it took the #1 spot on the US Spotify Daily chart on Sunday (22nd), solidifying its lead for the weekly title. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley' crashed from 51c to 9c because, despite holding #2 daily, it lost the top spot to 'Babydoll' and the market realized it cannot close the gap in the remaining days. March 20, 2026 - March 24, 2026, 'Stateside' dropped continuously from 48c to 6c as the previous week's winner naturally faded from contention. March 23, 2026, 'Lemon Pound Cake - Afroman' saw a freak spike to 47.5c (before returning to near zero), likely a 'fat finger' error or liquidity glitch.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'March 27 US Spotify Weekly Top Song' event to analyze the Order Book, user discussions, and liquidity depth, updating the assessment of fair value, arbitrage strategies, and risks.
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?
Weather|$147.0k Vol|
time5 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Wellington on March 25?

Top Undervalued
+71.9¢
18°C(No)
+57.9¢
19°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
MetService has updated its forecast for March 25 in Wellington, lowering the high to 19°C and confir...
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Movers
March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of '19°C' surged from ~28c to 52c (peaking at 55c), driven by MetService updating its official forecast from 20°C down to 19°C and confirming cooling Southeasterlies, forcing a rapid consensus consolidation. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '21°C' crashed from 26.5c to 3c, and '23°C or higher' collapsed from 25c to near zero, as early warm forecasts were invalidated by updated cold air models, with the 'Easterly/Southerly' wind profile ruling out any heatwave scenarios.
AI Analysis
Retrieve the latest forecast for Wellington on March 25 from Wunderground and MetService, analyze the current Polymarket order book depth and recent user activity, and update the assessment of which temperature range represents the fair value.
Number of TSA passengers March 23 - March 29?
Politics|$19.3k Vol|
time3 days 17 hrs

Number of TSA passengers March 23 - March 29?

Top Undervalued
+13.5¢
18-18.5m(No)
+7.5¢
<17.5m(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market has undergone a drastic repricing in the last 48 hours. Despite the peak of 2.8M on March...
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Movers
March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the '18.5-19m' option crashed from 47c to 5.5c, and the '19-19.5m' option crashed from 24.5c to 2c. The reason is a fundamental reversal in market expectations for Spring Break traffic; early high-volume data likely failed to sustain, leading investors to dump positions in high-volume brackets. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the '<17.5m' option experienced extreme volatility, dropping from 41.5c to 17c before rebounding to 30.5c. The reason is that as the high-volume options (>18.5m) collapsed, capital sought a new safe harbor, causing indecision on whether traffic would revert to the lower range.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream narrative and early TSA data (breaking 2.8M on March 19) pointed towards 'record-breaking travel peaks,' implying the 19m+ range. However, prediction market prices have completely rejected this narrative, shifting the focus down to the 17.5m-18.5m range. This divergence often indicates that traders are reacting to recent softer data that has not yet been fully digested by the broader public sentiment.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the distribution of the $8,689 trading volume, focusing on the bid-ask spreads for the '19-19.5m' and '>19.5m' brackets, and re-assess if current odds are underestimating Spring Break traffic based on this week's (March 16-22) daily average data.
What will Trump say this week? (March 29)
Mentions|$179.8k Vol|
time3 days 17 hrs

What will Trump say this week? (March 29)

Top Undervalued
+26¢
Paid a big price / Paying a big price(No)
+22.5¢
Minnesota / Minneapolis(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The market experienced high volatility following the March 23 Memphis speech and Iran statements. 'E...
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Rule Risk
There are several key pitfalls: 1. Only verbal mentions count; written posts on platforms like Truth Social are excluded, which is a common confusion. 2. Videos must be filmed within the timeframe; Trump often reposts old clips, making verification of the filming date contentious. 3. The compound word rule (e.g., 'killjoy' counts for 'joy', but 'joyful' does not) is counter-intuitive and requires precise adjudication.
Exotics
This is a classic novelty/prop bet. While Trump's speeches are political norms, betting on whether he will utter specific random words like 'Cookie', 'Chuck Norris', or 'Egg' is highly exotic and entertainment-focused, differing significantly from traditional election or policy forecasting.
Movers
March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 'Ethanol' surged from 41c to 72c, driven by the announcement of a White House agriculture and biofuels event scheduled for this Friday (March 27), creating a high expectation of the term being mentioned. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 'Barack Hussein Obama' spiked from 50c to 82c before retracing to 66c. This was caused by Trump aggressively attacking the 'Obama deal' in his Memphis speech, with the subsequent pullback reflecting market uncertainty over whether the full name was used versus just the last name. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 'Minnesota / Minneapolis' surged from 47c to 76c then plummeted to 50c. Traders speculated Trump would list the city during his Memphis crime roundtable, but sold off when initial reports indicated his focus was primarily on Chicago and Memphis.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media confirms Trump will host a biofuels event on March 27, a fundamentally strong signal for 'Ethanol', yet the market price sits at only 71c, failing to fully price in this scheduled certainty (Event-Driven Mispricing). Additionally, while Trump frequently mentions 'Rigged' and 'Stolen', the price retraction after the speech indicates market caution regarding whether the specific phrasing met the strict resolution criteria.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest order book data for 'What will Trump say this week?', analyze the bid-ask spread for high-probability terms like 'Rigged / Stolen', and review Polymarket user discussions to identify if there is a market consensus on betting strategies for specific upcoming rallies or interviews.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
66,000
YesNo
87¢
13¢
71.1¢
28.9¢
0¢
+15.9¢
68,000
YesNo
76¢
25¢
59.6¢
40.4¢
0¢
+15.4¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0060, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 2: Weekly Price Change, 0.0410, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0060, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0120, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0100, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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