Bitcoin above ___ on May 9? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$144 Vol|

6 days 19 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on May 9? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+11¢

80,000(Yes)

+9.5¢

82,000(Yes)

+7.2¢

78,000(Yes)

Bitcoin above ___ on May 9? AI analysis: • +11¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Geopolitics|$14.0k Vol|

Who will Trump meet with in May?

Top Undervalued

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva(Yes)

Giorgia Meloni(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices reflect expectations for Donald Trump's potential meeting counterparts in May ...

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The rule explicitly defines a meeting as 'any encounter where both... interact... in person,' which differs from standard formal diplomatic or business meetings. A brief handshake or pleasantries at a large summit could trigger a 'Yes' and cause resolution disputes.

What exactly qualifies as an 'in-person meeting' between Trump and the listed individuals, and how will the consensus of credible reporting be determined for market resolution?

Weather|$14.2k Vol|

Highest temperature in London on May 4?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in London on May 4, 2026, is expected to...

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Forecasting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common novelty topic in prediction markets. While not as mainstream as political elections or sports, it is not extremely bizarre because participants can rely on mature meteorological models.

The market currently favors 18°C (30.5c), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., The Weather Channel and Met Office) project a high of around 16°C to 17°C for May 4. This indicates a divergence between market pricing and the latest meteorological data, likely due to market participants not updating their models with the most recent forecasts.

Explain the resolution criteria for this London weather market in simple terms, specifically detailing how the Wunderground London City Airport (EGLC) data and the rounding to whole degrees Celsius will determine the winning temperature range.

Politics|$174.6k Vol|

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Heavily buy No shares on Reform (currently costing only 4.2 cents). Plan Description: It is practically impossible for Reform to win the most council seats in UK local elections based on...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

In UK local elections, Labour and the Conservatives possess extensive grassroots networks and candid...

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May 1, 2026, Reform's price plummeted from 97.75c to 82.2c before rebounding to 97.15c. This was likely due to a large trader attempting to short and correct the severe overvaluation, before speculative capital pushed the price back up. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, prices for all options remained stable with no movements exceeding 10 cents. Reform's price continued to fluctuate at extremely high levels (94c to 97.75c).

There is a massive divergence between market pricing and mainstream political consensus. The market assigns a 95% probability to Reform winning the most local council seats, whereas mainstream media, election experts, and historical data show that Labour and the Conservatives are the only serious contenders for local election dominance. Reform barely has the capacity to field enough candidates, let alone win the most seats. This extreme mismatch is purely driven by irrational speculative capital.

Compare the latest UK political polling data from sources like YouGov or Britain Elects with the current Polymarket odds for Labour, Conservatives, and Lib Dems winning the most council seats.

Politics|$79.5k Vol|

Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Labour thoroughly dominates London local politics. In the 2022 London borough council elections, Lab...

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The rules explicitly state that in the event of a tie, the market resolves to the party first in alphabetical order (e.g., Conservative beats Labour), which is a subtle trap. Additionally, control requires strictly more than 50% of voting councillors—coalitions and independent candidates are excluded, and executive roles like Mayor do not count. This strict definition could lead to a resolution that differs from media headlines.

There is a significant divergence in market pricing. The Green Party currently has an implied probability of 15.5%, while Labour is at 82.5%. In reality, it is highly unrealistic for the Greens to win 'control of the most London boroughs' as it would require securing absolute majorities across dozens of wards. Mainstream consensus and historical data strongly favor Labour winning the most councils by a landslide. This pricing likely reflects irrational speculative hype on a tail-risk event.

Explain like I'm 5 (ELI5): What are the exact resolution rules and criteria for 'controlling the most London borough councils' in the 2026 local elections?

Politics|$11.3k Vol|

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of late April 2026, the potential candidate landscape for the 2028 election remains largely uncha...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low total volume of ~$9,300 and the extremely long duration (until 2028), analyze the current bid-ask spread and order depth. Do the current odds reasonably reflect the fundamentals of potential female candidates like Kamala Harris or Gretchen Whitmer? Is there mispricing due to liquidity illiquidity?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

80,000

YesNo

32¢

71¢

43¢

57¢

+11¢

0¢

82,000

YesNo

15¢

87¢

24.5¢

75.5¢

+9.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0870, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0230, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0230, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0170, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Weekly Price Change, -0.0050, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 2: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Geopolitics|$14.0k Vol|

Who will Trump meet with in May?

Top Undervalued

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva(Yes)

Giorgia Meloni(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices reflect expectations for Donald Trump's potential meeting counterparts in May ...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rule explicitly defines a meeting as 'any encounter where both... interact... in person,' which differs from standard formal diplomatic or business meetings. A brief handshake or pleasantries at a large summit could trigger a 'Yes' and cause resolution disputes.

What exactly qualifies as an 'in-person meeting' between Trump and the listed individuals, and how will the consensus of credible reporting be determined for market resolution?

Weather|$14.2k Vol|

Highest temperature in London on May 4?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate that the high temperature in London on May 4, 2026, is expected to...

🔓 Log in to see more

Forecasting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a common novelty topic in prediction markets. While not as mainstream as political elections or sports, it is not extremely bizarre because participants can rely on mature meteorological models.

The market currently favors 18°C (30.5c), whereas mainstream weather forecasts (e.g., The Weather Channel and Met Office) project a high of around 16°C to 17°C for May 4. This indicates a divergence between market pricing and the latest meteorological data, likely due to market participants not updating their models with the most recent forecasts.

Explain the resolution criteria for this London weather market in simple terms, specifically detailing how the Wunderground London City Airport (EGLC) data and the rounding to whole degrees Celsius will determine the winning temperature range.

Politics|$174.6k Vol|

2026 United Kingdom Local Elections: Party Winner

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Heavily buy No shares on Reform (currently costing only 4.2 cents). Plan Description: It is practically impossible for Reform to win the most council seats in UK local elections based on...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

In UK local elections, Labour and the Conservatives possess extensive grassroots networks and candid...

🔓 Log in to see more

May 1, 2026, Reform's price plummeted from 97.75c to 82.2c before rebounding to 97.15c. This was likely due to a large trader attempting to short and correct the severe overvaluation, before speculative capital pushed the price back up. April 28, 2026 - April 30, 2026, prices for all options remained stable with no movements exceeding 10 cents. Reform's price continued to fluctuate at extremely high levels (94c to 97.75c).

There is a massive divergence between market pricing and mainstream political consensus. The market assigns a 95% probability to Reform winning the most local council seats, whereas mainstream media, election experts, and historical data show that Labour and the Conservatives are the only serious contenders for local election dominance. Reform barely has the capacity to field enough candidates, let alone win the most seats. This extreme mismatch is purely driven by irrational speculative capital.

Compare the latest UK political polling data from sources like YouGov or Britain Elects with the current Polymarket odds for Labour, Conservatives, and Lib Dems winning the most council seats.

Politics|$79.5k Vol|

Which party wins control of the most London borough councils?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Labour thoroughly dominates London local politics. In the 2022 London borough council elections, Lab...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules explicitly state that in the event of a tie, the market resolves to the party first in alphabetical order (e.g., Conservative beats Labour), which is a subtle trap. Additionally, control requires strictly more than 50% of voting councillors—coalitions and independent candidates are excluded, and executive roles like Mayor do not count. This strict definition could lead to a resolution that differs from media headlines.

There is a significant divergence in market pricing. The Green Party currently has an implied probability of 15.5%, while Labour is at 82.5%. In reality, it is highly unrealistic for the Greens to win 'control of the most London boroughs' as it would require securing absolute majorities across dozens of wards. Mainstream consensus and historical data strongly favor Labour winning the most councils by a landslide. This pricing likely reflects irrational speculative hype on a tail-risk event.

Explain like I'm 5 (ELI5): What are the exact resolution rules and criteria for 'controlling the most London borough councils' in the 2026 local elections?

Politics|$11.3k Vol|

Will the next elected US president be a woman?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of late April 2026, the potential candidate landscape for the 2028 election remains largely uncha...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the low total volume of ~$9,300 and the extremely long duration (until 2028), analyze the current bid-ask spread and order depth. Do the current odds reasonably reflect the fundamentals of potential female candidates like Kamala Harris or Gretchen Whitmer? Is there mispricing due to liquidity illiquidity?

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Bitcoin above ___ on May 9? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing