Bitcoin price on April 26?
Crypto|$11.1k Vol|
time3 days 18 hrs

Bitcoin price on April 26? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+4.7¢
78,000-80,000(No)
+4.6¢
76,000-78,000(No)
+3.6¢
82,000-84,000(Yes)

Bitcoin price on April 26? AI analysis: • +4.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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FL-24 House Election Winner
Elections|$15.3k Vol|
time194 days 2 hrs

FL-24 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
FL-24 is one of the safest Democratic districts in Florida (Cook PVI D+25), with a massive African A...
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AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket FL-24 page. Given the low volume of $3663, analyze if the bid-ask spread is too wide. Combining this with the incumbent Rep. Frederica Wilson's status in this safe Democratic district, assess if the current price fairly reflects the win probability versus the capital lock-up cost.
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 23?
Weather|$39.3k Vol|
time14 hrs 58 mins

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on April 23?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
26°C(No)
+3¢
27°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from Wunderground and other major platforms, the high temperature ...
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Exotics
Predicting the highest temperature in a specific city on a specific day is a relatively niche and random market. While weather forecasting is common, setting up a betting market for Shenzhen's temperature on a particular day carries a moderate level of novelty.
Movers
April 22, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 26°C surged from 11c to 50c (before settling around 37c) because updated weather forecasts revealed a significant temperature drop due to incoming rain, suggesting actual highs might only reach 24°C-26°C. April 22, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 28°C plummeted from 34c to 7c (then rebounded to 18c) as the anticipated cooling exceeded earlier expectations, drastically shrinking the likelihood of reaching 28°C.
AI Analysis
How reliable is the Wunderground history page for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ), and are there any past instances of data outages or missing records that could delay the resolution of this temperature market?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 23?
Weather|$17.5k Vol|
time14 hrs 58 mins

Highest temperature in Chengdu on April 23?

Top Undervalued
+12.5¢
29°C(Yes)
+5¢
26°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only about 15 hours until expiration, recent market data shows the 'yes' price for 28°C surging...
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Exotics
While checking the weather forecast is a mundane daily activity, people do not typically predict and bet on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a future date, giving this event a somewhat niche and novelty status in prediction markets.
Movers
Between April 22, 2026 19:18 and 20:23, the Yes price for 28°C surged from 37.5c to 49.5c, while the Yes price for 27°C plummeted from 29c to 15c. This rapid adjustment is likely due to the latest meteorological observation data showing temperatures closer to 28°C as the expiration approaches. Between April 21 and April 22, 2026, the Yes price for 25°C dropped from a peak of 10.5c to 0.9c, and the Yes price for 26°C fell from 22.5c to 10c, as updated forecasts indicated actual temperatures would be significantly higher than the initially expected 25-26°C range.
Divergence
The previous fair value analysis noted mainstream forecasts around 25°C, but current market prices (with the 28°C option near 50c) show a massive divergence from this. This is highly likely because short-term weather forecasts were significantly revised upwards as the date approached, and actual observational data supported a higher temperature, causing market prices to completely diverge from earlier long-term forecast expectations.
AI Analysis
Is the historical high temperature data update on Wunderground for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport (ZUUU) station stable, or is there a risk of delayed or missing data locking up funds?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 23?
Weather|$11.8k Vol|
time14 hrs 58 mins

Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 23?

Top Undervalued
+23.5¢
17°C(Yes)
+16¢
19°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts for April 23, 2026, the high temperature for Wuhan (ZHHH) ...
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Exotics
Weather prediction markets exist on some platforms, but predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific non-capital city on a given day remains a relatively niche and random topic for most people.
Movers
April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 20°C plummeted from 28.5c to 3.3c, as updated forecasts approaching resolution day made it highly unlikely for temperatures to reach 20°C. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 17°C surged from 7c to 24.5c, driven by meteorological agencies consistently revising the high temperature expectations down to around 17°C. April 21, 2026 - April 22, 2026, the price of 18°C rallied from 23c to 44c before pulling back slightly, as market participants re-evaluated the likely peak between 17°C and 18°C.
Divergence
There is a notable divergence. While the latest mainstream weather forecasts predict the daily high in Wuhan on April 23 to be only 63°F (17.2°C), the market still prices 18°C (38.5c) and 19°C (26c) as the heavy favorites. This suggests either a delayed market reaction to incoming weather data or that traders are betting on the microclimate heat island effect at the airport station recording higher temperatures than general city forecasts.
AI Analysis
Based on the resolution rules, what is the latest weather forecast for Wuhan Tianhe International Airport (ZHHH) on April 23 on Wunderground, and how exactly will the final data be verified on the page?
Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?
Finance|$11.8k Vol|
time13 days 2 hrs

Uber # of trips above __ in Q1?

Top Undervalued
+21¢
3.6B(No)
+8.7¢
3.4B(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to Uber's recent earnings, total trips were 3.0 billion in Q1 2025 and 3.8 billion in Q4 2...
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Hedging
UBER
Uber's total number of trips is a key operational metric measuring the growth of its rideshare and delivery businesses. The outcome will directly impact Uber's stock price upon earnings release and may have a minor spillover effect on key competitors like Lyft.
Divergence
The market is exhibiting a significant irrational premium for extremely high trip thresholds (e.g., 4.4B, 4.6B). Given Uber's all-time high of 3.8 billion trips in Q4 2025 and typical Q1 seasonality, reaching 4.0 billion or more in Q1 2026 would require unprecedented growth, which strongly diverges from fundamental analysis and Wall Street consensus.
AI Analysis
Verify how Uber officially reports the 'total number of trips' metric in their recent earnings materials, and check if there are any rule risks regarding metric definition changes or omission in the Q1 2026 report.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
78,000-80,000
YesNo
28¢
72¢
23.3¢
76.7¢
0¢
+4.7¢
76,000-78,000
YesNo
24.5¢
75.5¢
19.9¢
80.1¢
0¢
+4.6¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0870, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0470, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Weekly Price Change, 0.0340, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 4: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0470, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 5: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

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