Bitcoin price on May 1? - AI Mispricing Alert

Crypto|$10.6k Vol|

1 days 18 hrs

Bitcoin price on May 1? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+3.5¢

74,000-76,000(No)

+2.6¢

78,000-80,000(Yes)

+0.4¢

72,000-74,000(Yes)

Bitcoin price on May 1? AI analysis: • +3.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$39.7k Vol|

White House # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The official White House X account typically posts around 15-25 times per day. Over a 7-day period, ...

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The rules exclude replies but note that replies recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker, which could cause resolution disputes. Furthermore, settlement heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com). Any tracker downtime or missed data (e.g., posts deleted before being captured) creates a risk of discrepancy with actual X data.

This is a typical novelty market for prediction platforms. For the general public, unless specifically incentivized, absolutely no one would care about or predict the exact number of tweets posted by the White House account in a single week, making it quite exotic.

Between 06:03 and 16:03 on April 28, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 38c to 58c, '180-199' surged from 23.5c to 44c, and '200+' surged from 14.5c to 45c. This suggests market expectations of a significantly higher posting frequency, likely due to breaking news or an intensive promotional campaign for a specific event. Between April 27 and April 28, 2026, lower posting brackets (e.g., 40-59, 60-79) experienced brief and anomalous price spikes (reaching ~24c) at 16:03 on April 28, before quickly retreating. This was likely due to mispricing from illiquidity or large market orders sweeping the book.

Based on historical data from the past year, what is the average weekly post frequency for the @WhiteHouse X account, and are there any scheduled major political events or holidays between April 28 and May 5, 2026, that could cause abnormal post volume?

Culture|$1.6m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market pricing and tweeting velocity data, the distribution center has shifted f...

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The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and include a fuzzy ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts, while also distinguishing between 'main feed replies' and 'normal replies'. These technical nuances can cause discrepancies between tracked data and user observations, leading to a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes in a specific week is a typical novelty behavioral market. It appears quite absurd and bizarre to the general public, even though such markets are somewhat popular in prediction circles due to Musk's high profile.

April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The Yes price for the '240-259' bracket plummeted from a high of 47c to 13.5c. The reason is that as data accumulated into the second day, Musk's tweeting frequency stabilized at a lower level, causing the market to significantly downgrade its extremely high expectations for the weekly total. Earlier on April 28, 2026: Multiple brackets experienced significant price shifts. The '240-259' bracket surged from 19c to 47c, and '220-239' rose from 18c to 27c. These drastic movements reflect aggressive market recalibrations and hedging based on the actual tweeting velocity observed during the initial hours of the market period.

Based on historical data from the past year, what is Elon Musk's average weekly tweet count (strictly main feed, quotes, and reposts), and how frequently does his volume fall into the currently favored brackets?

Politics|$61.3k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the first day of the tracking period has elapsed, the market has adjusted its expectations downwa...

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Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market. Unless they are betting, general audiences rarely care about such granular data.

April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The Yes price for the 80-99 option dropped from 55.5c to 32.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 45c to 25.5c. This was due to a recalibration of extreme expectations as the actual posting data from the first day became available. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026: The Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 0.75c to 32.7c, and the 80-99 option surged from 14c to 55.5c. This was due to a downward adjustment in posting pace expectations for the specific time window, combined with structural distortions in the order book. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The Yes price for the 120-139 option rose from 16.5c to 32c, as early forecasting funds identified this bracket as closely aligning with his historical average output.

Based on historical data, what is the average weekly number of Truth Social posts (including reposts, excluding replies) made by Donald Trump over the past three months?

Geopolitics|$90.4k Vol|

Will Trump visit China on...?

Top Undervalued

No visit by May 31(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to official announcements from the White House and media reports, Trump's planned trip to ...

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The rules explicitly state resolution is based on the US Eastern Time (ET) calendar date. Since China Standard Time is 12 hours ahead of ET, a visit's local date in China could easily misalign with the ET date (e.g., landing in the morning in Beijing means it's still the previous day in ET), making this a major time-zone trap. Additionally, defining 'maritime territory' could be ambiguous in disputed waters.

There is a significant divergence in market pricing. According to credible mainstream media, Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14-15. However, the prediction market currently prices 'May 16' at 24c, which is much higher than the actual likely arrival dates (May 13 and May 14 ET). This could be due to traders miscalculating the time zone difference or being misled by inaccurate alternative information sources.

Search official White House schedules and recent news to verify if there are any confirmed dates or rumored itineraries for Donald Trump's visit to China in May 2026.

Trump|$1.4m Vol|

James Comey arrested by May 15?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to breaking news on April 28, 2026, the DOJ indicted former FBI Director James Comey over ...

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Betting on the arrest of a specific former government official is a niche political market. However, because Comey was just indicted again by the DOJ with an active arrest warrant, it is a highly publicized current event, making it only moderately exotic.

April 25, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged to 68c. This was driven by breaking news on April 28 that the DOJ indicted Comey for a second time and officially issued an arrest warrant, making his arrest or surrender before May 15 imminent.

Significant divergence exists. The current market price (68c) heavily underestimates the likelihood of an arrest. Mainstream media has confirmed that a federal arrest warrant was officially issued today (April 28). Under these circumstances, Comey being detained or voluntarily surrendering (both qualifying as 'Yes') is merely a procedural formality and will undoubtedly occur before May 15. The market is likely lagging and has not fully priced in the issuance of the active warrant.

What recent news, rumors, or political developments have sparked speculation about former FBI Director James Comey being arrested by May 15, 2026?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

74,000-76,000

YesNo

38¢

65¢

31.5¢

68.5¢

0¢

+3.5¢

78,000-80,000

YesNo

13¢

90¢

15.6¢

84.4¢

+2.6¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0030, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0050, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0040, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0120, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$39.7k Vol|

White House # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The official White House X account typically posts around 15-25 times per day. Over a 7-day period, ...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules exclude replies but note that replies recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker, which could cause resolution disputes. Furthermore, settlement heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com). Any tracker downtime or missed data (e.g., posts deleted before being captured) creates a risk of discrepancy with actual X data.

This is a typical novelty market for prediction platforms. For the general public, unless specifically incentivized, absolutely no one would care about or predict the exact number of tweets posted by the White House account in a single week, making it quite exotic.

Between 06:03 and 16:03 on April 28, 2026, the price of the '160-179' option surged from 38c to 58c, '180-199' surged from 23.5c to 44c, and '200+' surged from 14.5c to 45c. This suggests market expectations of a significantly higher posting frequency, likely due to breaking news or an intensive promotional campaign for a specific event. Between April 27 and April 28, 2026, lower posting brackets (e.g., 40-59, 60-79) experienced brief and anomalous price spikes (reaching ~24c) at 16:03 on April 28, before quickly retreating. This was likely due to mispricing from illiquidity or large market orders sweeping the book.

Based on historical data from the past year, what is the average weekly post frequency for the @WhiteHouse X account, and are there any scheduled major political events or holidays between April 28 and May 5, 2026, that could cause abnormal post volume?

Culture|$1.6m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest market pricing and tweeting velocity data, the distribution center has shifted f...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules rely heavily on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) and include a fuzzy ~5-minute capture window for deleted posts, while also distinguishing between 'main feed replies' and 'normal replies'. These technical nuances can cause discrepancies between tracked data and user observations, leading to a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Betting on the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes in a specific week is a typical novelty behavioral market. It appears quite absurd and bizarre to the general public, even though such markets are somewhat popular in prediction circles due to Musk's high profile.

April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The Yes price for the '240-259' bracket plummeted from a high of 47c to 13.5c. The reason is that as data accumulated into the second day, Musk's tweeting frequency stabilized at a lower level, causing the market to significantly downgrade its extremely high expectations for the weekly total. Earlier on April 28, 2026: Multiple brackets experienced significant price shifts. The '240-259' bracket surged from 19c to 47c, and '220-239' rose from 18c to 27c. These drastic movements reflect aggressive market recalibrations and hedging based on the actual tweeting velocity observed during the initial hours of the market period.

Based on historical data from the past year, what is Elon Musk's average weekly tweet count (strictly main feed, quotes, and reposts), and how frequently does his volume fall into the currently favored brackets?

Politics|$61.3k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the first day of the tracking period has elapsed, the market has adjusted its expectations downwa...

🔓 Log in to see more

Predicting the exact number of posts by a public figure in a specific week is a classic novelty market. Unless they are betting, general audiences rarely care about such granular data.

April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The Yes price for the 80-99 option dropped from 55.5c to 32.5c, and the 120-139 option dropped from 45c to 25.5c. This was due to a recalibration of extreme expectations as the actual posting data from the first day became available. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026: The Yes price for the 60-79 option surged from 0.75c to 32.7c, and the 80-99 option surged from 14c to 55.5c. This was due to a downward adjustment in posting pace expectations for the specific time window, combined with structural distortions in the order book. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The Yes price for the 120-139 option rose from 16.5c to 32c, as early forecasting funds identified this bracket as closely aligning with his historical average output.

Based on historical data, what is the average weekly number of Truth Social posts (including reposts, excluding replies) made by Donald Trump over the past three months?

Geopolitics|$90.4k Vol|

Will Trump visit China on...?

Top Undervalued

No visit by May 31(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to official announcements from the White House and media reports, Trump's planned trip to ...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules explicitly state resolution is based on the US Eastern Time (ET) calendar date. Since China Standard Time is 12 hours ahead of ET, a visit's local date in China could easily misalign with the ET date (e.g., landing in the morning in Beijing means it's still the previous day in ET), making this a major time-zone trap. Additionally, defining 'maritime territory' could be ambiguous in disputed waters.

There is a significant divergence in market pricing. According to credible mainstream media, Trump is scheduled to visit China on May 14-15. However, the prediction market currently prices 'May 16' at 24c, which is much higher than the actual likely arrival dates (May 13 and May 14 ET). This could be due to traders miscalculating the time zone difference or being misled by inaccurate alternative information sources.

Search official White House schedules and recent news to verify if there are any confirmed dates or rumored itineraries for Donald Trump's visit to China in May 2026.

Trump|$1.4m Vol|

James Comey arrested by May 15?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to breaking news on April 28, 2026, the DOJ indicted former FBI Director James Comey over ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Betting on the arrest of a specific former government official is a niche political market. However, because Comey was just indicted again by the DOJ with an active arrest warrant, it is a highly publicized current event, making it only moderately exotic.

April 25, 2026 - April 28, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged to 68c. This was driven by breaking news on April 28 that the DOJ indicted Comey for a second time and officially issued an arrest warrant, making his arrest or surrender before May 15 imminent.

Significant divergence exists. The current market price (68c) heavily underestimates the likelihood of an arrest. Mainstream media has confirmed that a federal arrest warrant was officially issued today (April 28). Under these circumstances, Comey being detained or voluntarily surrendering (both qualifying as 'Yes') is merely a procedural formality and will undoubtedly occur before May 15. The market is likely lagging and has not fully priced in the issuance of the active warrant.

What recent news, rumors, or political developments have sparked speculation about former FBI Director James Comey being arrested by May 15, 2026?

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